He's only got 10 points and the problem is that there are five big preps still to go worth 100-40-20-10 points each. He is not going in any of them unless they run him back in two weeks next Saturday. The Lexington gives him three weeks but is worth only 20 points if he wins and even then, 30 points is likely not going to do it, even as horses inevitably fall off the map. Maybe he will be a new shooter in the Preakness, but he is unlikely to make the Derby field. Per usual, you figure that most any healthy 3YO who has enough points is taking a shot and there will still be at least 20 horses ahead of him even after they fill the field. This year it looks like the UAE Derby winner, Crown Pride is heading to Kentucky as well so that will take a spot in the gate. Everyone knows you need points and it is the job of the connections to put horses into spots to earn them. There will always be apparently good horses left out because they failed to do so for whatever reason.