Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Florida Derby (455 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: April 02, 2022 02:15PM

per BRIS if I understand correctly from a sample of 40 races all three-year-olds stakes & Handicap races @GP $100k+ the betting favorite wins 48% of the time.

So one doesn't need much of a price to have a positive potential.

Whichever of the top four(4) contenders ends up the favorite it's likely the crowd will get it right.

Based on that I will look for value underneath and even that seems iffy now that I'm expecting a chalky finish.

My final angle will be (same source) runners of P-type have fared well recently albeit a small sample. Those would be Papacap, Cajun's Magic, and Steal Sunshine.

[b]Steal Sunshine[/b] + competent trainer stats, well enough bred to not discount, apparent good recent works. - unheralded rider, post position no history that suggests the ability to finish near the top ones here. But - IMO the potential for a jump up.

[b]Cajun's Magic[/b] + has already run fast enough to be considered. c/b an alternator or maybe just inconsistent. - no celebrities in any category so it's hard to know what connections may be thinking.

[b]Papacap[/b] + lightly raced as 3 y/o, ran fast at the end of his 2 y/o campaign including a 2nd place finish in the BC Juvy. Casse has been working him fast and often. - his last race resulted in a collapse and quit trying just as he should have been making his run. He's attended a fast pace previously. ? so the question mark is his condition because he's previously proven capable.

Investment Strategy
The race offers ex, tri, spr, and super hi-5. So under the four m/l favorites, I will use Papacap on the bottom of the tri and super, additionally, I will use Cajun's Magic & Steal Sunshine at the bottom of the super high-5 behind the above mentioned 5 contenders.

Good Luck!



Subject Written By Posted
Florida Derby (639 Views) prist 04/02/2022 10:59AM
Re: Florida Derby (503 Views) statuette 04/02/2022 11:16AM
Re: Florida Derby (455 Views) Tavasco 04/02/2022 02:15PM
Re: Florida Derby (449 Views) Tavasco 04/02/2022 03:04PM
Re: Florida Derby (432 Views) Molesap 04/02/2022 04:37PM
Re: Florida Derby (444 Views) Tavasco 04/02/2022 06:37PM
Re: Florida Derby (475 Views) ajkreider 04/02/2022 02:06PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.