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Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (532 Views)
Posted by: grinder (IP Logged)
Date: July 14, 2022 05:57PM

Set Piece (3/1) – This 6 year old gelding comes into the race off a win and 55 day layoff. His last race was 1 ½ TG points slower than his recent established top which he ran twice last year. It appears that he is now being carefully managed by Brad Cox and was put away after disappointing as the favorite in the Woodbine Mile last year. He also ran well to finish 2nd to Got Stormy last year on this course. He has an inside draw and is an obvious contender but likely underlay.

Wolfie’s Dynaghost (15/1) – He appears much slower than these, and would need a big jump up in performance to contend here.

Mira Mission (7/2) – He moved to the barn of Ian Wilkes after his last race at Saratoga last year. After a significant layoff, he moved forward almost 5 TG points in a race on the synthetic at Gulfstream Park. He subsequently won two turf races at that track during the winter and in his last race narrowly missed in a G1 at Churchill Downs, in which he ran another new top. He has moved up more than 7 TG points since Wilkes took over his training last year – which is a huge improvement during that time-period. While he has been given a layoff to recover from his last race– I think he could regress off that effort and also may not be fully cranked for this race. Therefore, he could be vulnerable here at a short price.

Yes and Yes (20/1) - While he has run some competitive TG numbers in turf sprints, I’m not sure that two turns will suit him. He also should be contesting what projects to be a fast pace in this race.

Clear Vision (30/1) – Another 6 year old gelding that has never previously run fast enough to contend here.

Analyze It (15/1) – While his last race off an extended layoff had the look of a prep race, it appears that this 7 year old gelding has lost a step from his best efforts.

Public Sector (6/1) Even though he was compromised by a slow pace, he ran a 2 point TG top in his last race at Belmont . His off the pace running style can work against him, but given the projected fast pace in this race he could get a good set-up today. While his TG top is slower than the two M/L favorites, I believe that he is the horse most likely to run well today and may also run another top. He is also 2/2 on this course. However, the Chad/Irad combo will obviously not help his price.

Atone (6/1) – He ran two races last fall that would make him a contender here, but his recent races this year without Lasix are slower and below the top contenders.

Get Smokin (10/1) –Given all the gaps between most of his races, the horse clearly has some physical issues. Even is better races are not fast enough against these.

City Man (8/1)
– I would draw a line through his last race. If you watch the tape, you will see that his chances were totally compromised by the tactics of the favorite in that race. First, he broke well and established the lead on the rail down the backstretch. I’m not sure if the favorite was rank or not but half-way down the backstretch the rider makes an ill-advised and premature move to challenge City Man for the lead. The rider of City Man tapped the brakes to concede the lead, but maintained his position on the rail though the turn. However, when the favorite inevitably tired from his earlier move, City Man was completely stymied and repeatedly checked inside behind him when he attempted to close up the rail during the stretch run. I believe that a more accurate barometer of his ability is indicated by his TG top earned last fall at Belmont and repeated off the layoff this spring at Aqueduct. He also ran well at Saratoga last year and should be a decent price – but he will need to work out a trip from this draw.

Scuttlebuzz (15/1) – While he has earned some good TG numbers sprinting on the turf, I don’t think he will relish the two turns especially with this draw.

Sanctuary City (20/1) – He was also compromised by the pace set-up in his last race as he exits the same race as Public Sector. His best would make him a borderline contender, but he got the worst of the draw today. However, he still could get a piece of the verticals at a nice price.

Bottom Line – I’m against the M/L favorites and think the value in this race will be found on City Man and Public Sector.

Subject Written By Posted
Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (532 Views) grinder 07/14/2022 05:57PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (372 Views) Tavasco 07/15/2022 12:38PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (328 Views) statuette 07/15/2022 02:03PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (271 Views) Tavasco 07/15/2022 05:50PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (240 Views) johnnym 07/15/2022 10:46PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (264 Views) Tavasco 07/15/2022 04:33PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (279 Views) P-Dub 07/15/2022 05:46PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (270 Views) prist 07/15/2022 06:08PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (273 Views) statuette 07/15/2022 07:55PM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (235 Views) prist 07/16/2022 10:29AM
Re: Figuring the Feature (Forbidden Apple) (209 Views) HP 07/16/2022 03:05PM

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