glass_oni0n Wrote:
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> I'm by no means an expert and I would love to hear
> a more expert opinion than my own, but given the
> 3pts of development expected for Into Mischief
> horses, Timberlake getting down to that -0 or -1
> he may need to win this race could be in his range
> of outcomes.
>
> I follow the Jeff Franklin school of thought on
> 3YOs and bounces. It's not so easy to just
> predict a developing 3YO or lightly raced 4YO will
> bounce. World Record made a 5 pt jump second time
> out appearing to have more horse, then paired that
> effort on an off surface and a bad break when he
> had every right to bounce. Then he comes out and
> runs a -1 and draws the ground saving trip that
> could break any tie of horses trying to meet or
> exceed that number. I'm by no means seasoned
> enough using the sheets to say he's the "easy
> pick" TGJB was referring to, but I'd wager it's
> either him or Prince of Monaco.


I’ve never seen Jerry pick a horse like the 1. Could be the Baffert, but I don’t think so.