Re: Derby Trifecta (611 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2025 12:08AM
Looking at the Trifecta and these top choices, I formulated this play as follows to look at a little closer since the Points Era.
1, 2, 3, 4 = Top 4 betting choices.
$1 Trifecta Plays and $1 Payoffs is how I broke it down this time.
1 with 234 with ALL, $54
1 with ALL with 234, $54
234 with 1 with ALL, $54
ALL with 1 with 234, $54
234 with ALL with 1, $54
ALL with 234 with 1, $54
Total Play with 20 horses, $324.00.
Several years there were less than 20 horses (so less cost in those years obviously than $54 per ticket)
_________________
RESULTS, Trifecta play hit 8 out of 12 years.
Trifecta play was profitable 5 times.
2013, 3,462.80
2014, 1,712.00
2015, 202.00 for $2 (Note: would have it for full $2 as listed here)
2016, 173.40 for $2 (Note: would have it for full $2 as listed here)
2017, X
2018, 141.40
2019, X
2020, 1311.80
2021, X
2022, 14870.70
2023, 982.36
2024, X
TOTAL INVESTMENT IF PLAYED ALL 12 YEARS FOR $1: $3888.00 (Less than this b/c less than 20 horse fields at least a few times and only 15 in 2020).
TOTAL RETURN IF PLAYED ALL 12 YEARS AS SHOWN: $22856.46
This isn't the worst play for a group of Novices to take a shot and split up the cost into small pieces, but it is sheer gambling on the all button bringing in a bomb in 1 of the 3 spots to make it worthwhile.
1, 2, 3, 4 = Top 4 betting choices.
$1 Trifecta Plays and $1 Payoffs is how I broke it down this time.
1 with 234 with ALL, $54
1 with ALL with 234, $54
234 with 1 with ALL, $54
ALL with 1 with 234, $54
234 with ALL with 1, $54
ALL with 234 with 1, $54
Total Play with 20 horses, $324.00.
Several years there were less than 20 horses (so less cost in those years obviously than $54 per ticket)
_________________
RESULTS, Trifecta play hit 8 out of 12 years.
Trifecta play was profitable 5 times.
2013, 3,462.80
2014, 1,712.00
2015, 202.00 for $2 (Note: would have it for full $2 as listed here)
2016, 173.40 for $2 (Note: would have it for full $2 as listed here)
2017, X
2018, 141.40
2019, X
2020, 1311.80
2021, X
2022, 14870.70
2023, 982.36
2024, X
TOTAL INVESTMENT IF PLAYED ALL 12 YEARS FOR $1: $3888.00 (Less than this b/c less than 20 horse fields at least a few times and only 15 in 2020).
TOTAL RETURN IF PLAYED ALL 12 YEARS AS SHOWN: $22856.46
This isn't the worst play for a group of Novices to take a shot and split up the cost into small pieces, but it is sheer gambling on the all button bringing in a bomb in 1 of the 3 spots to make it worthwhile.
| Subject | Written By | Posted |
|---|---|---|
| Fairmount1 | 04/12/2025 11:37PM | |
| johnnym | 04/13/2025 08:12AM | |
| Fairmount1 | 04/21/2025 12:08AM | |
| johnnym | 04/21/2025 07:41PM |
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