Toppled,

I didn't forget Baeza (maybe I was being coy)!

His gallop out in his last two have him ahead of Journalism. He lost the SA Derby by 3/4 and galloped out past him. Then lost to Journalism for 2nd by a neck in the Derby and galloped out past him and Sovereignty.

But I see him as 5-2 or 3-1. As for Triple Crown races and win odds, the Preakness has been a strange place resulting in depressed odds on longshots in the win pool and with no real explanation ever satisfying me. But these two (Derby and Preakness winners) have strong credentials that should put them in that EVEN Money (Journalism) and Under 2-1 (Sovereignty) neighborhood respectively. One excuse for Journalism in the Derby in that head-to-head you mention is the Mud. Sovereignty does have the 5 weeks of rest so maybe they are closer in price than I anticipate but I give the anticipated nod for favoritism to Journalism after that Stretch run, some big back Beyers which heavily influence the win pool on TC races, and the Preakness Stretch Run.

Of note, he made up 5 1/4 Lengths I think I read from 1/8 pole. The largest margin ever made up prior to that since charts were created for Preakness was 4 Lengths by Carry Back. The charts were first created in 1909 I think I read.

I am hoping the showdown along with Baeza and others does happen. Should make for a heck of a Belmont card that day.

It has been nice reading some serious posts in these parts lately. Hope it continues.