Anecdotally, I did not agree with your statement. Off the top of my head, Americathegreat didn't run a step in the Debutante at CD at a low price and the Schylurville runner didn't win at low odds stretching to 6f on dirt.

I did wager on the horse in the closing race on Friday during my 2 day Thurs-Fri stint at Saratoga. I saw the horse as a likely lone speed type and while the horse ran a hole in the wind (109 Beyer), there was reason to think the horse was a likely winner. (Not a Red Board as that was the only decent ticket I cashed the two days as I found the wagering very difficult until that point and lost overall for the 2 days). Classic Q was also a lone front running winner on the turf that some think has a decided edge to speed (maybe only the inner turf) the past few days holding off two Chad's. He also won the Penn Mile. And Nitrogen lost while Ewing won and another maiden with fast works didn't win on yesterday's Sar card.

So I looked it up and here ya go.

The past 14 days:

Overall, 15 for 71
Kentucky, 1 for 13 (Hmmmm....)
NYRA Circuit, 3 for 13
Turf Only, 6 for 33