Re: Del Mar Opening Day (746 Views)
Posted by: Molesap (IP Logged)
Date: July 17, 2025 01:03PM

Totally agree with the comments on takeout of the late P5 and all the P4 bets in CA. The late P5 takeout at nearly 24% (23.68% to be exact) is almost 10% higher than the early P5 takeout (14%). It is hard enough to hit a P5 as it is, but if you hit the late P5, they keep almost 1/4 of the pool. The $3 late P3 and the $5 late DD both have 15% juice, while the WPS are a bit over 15% (15.43%). The rolling DD is 20% and everything else is either 22.68% (exactas) or 23.68% (any bet not mentioned). By contrast, Saratoga has a 15% takeout on all P5 and P6 wagers, a similar 16% on WPS, a lower exacta and DD take out generally at 18.5%, but that jumps up to 24% on trifecta, superfecta, grand slam, P3 and P4 bets.

I have not delved into the PP much yet, but as far as Dmr 7 is concerned opening day, I agree that Druliner will go off lower than 5/1 - 3/1 or 7/2 might be about right. Add in that Lewis hits at 28% second time out and the horse will likely break better here, I think she is a solid selection. Nothing too compelling about Big Coin, but the outer posts often fair well at Dmr in sprints - she is in post 10. Trainer Rafeal DeLeon has started just two firsters at Dmr in the past five years and one of them won. Don’t like the gap in works though and she has only four relatively recent works coming into this race at Los Al, but most have been quick. Maybe she is worth a flyer in the field of Cal bred 2YO at a morning line of 20/1.

In the Oceanside, the pace looks very contentious and arguably Iron Man Cal will benefit from that. I hate to chalk out, but he looks best. Hs last race was against a very good group. Both Zulu Kingdom and Test Score came back and won G1 events since American Turf on Derby Day. I had a similar idea to Fairmount’s where I also was interested in a 15/1 shot out of the Cinema and I thought Incanto might be a decent price play getting a pocket trip behind some dueling leaders and perhaps getting first jump on the closers, which he will have to do as he has not shown that much late pop as he looks like more a grinder type.



Subject Written By Posted
Del Mar Opening Day (844 Views) Fairmount1 07/16/2025 09:46PM
Re: Del Mar Opening Day (493 Views) Gary Irish 07/17/2025 07:26AM
Re: Del Mar Opening Day (746 Views) Molesap 07/17/2025 01:03PM
Re: Del Mar Opening Day - OCEANSIDE (602 Views) P-Dub 07/18/2025 04:20PM
Re: Del Mar Opening Day - OCEANSIDE (457 Views) Silver Charm 07/18/2025 04:52PM


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