If you see Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables on the drop at Saratoga they are trying to win. They are trying for an Owners Title. If you see the same outfit making a big drop in, say Nov-Feb run. The runner is worthless.

Pletcher, I always felt like he had a pretty idea what he had, so when he dropped, it was at the right level. Brown, in the first example, is the same thing. They ride an Ortiz and a Saez, and this adds up to like 6/5. In a race or level where he will be very competitive but not towering over thw field. Is this a good bet? Well, if he wins, it is.

I think with purses being as large as they have become in Kentucky and New York, the Trainers people are trying to win. Find the right level. If the runner is 3 or 4YO you need to be skeptical. If he is 6 or 7 and drops to Allowance conditions for $62,500 they want to win but also have no where else to go. And if they lose him well he is 6 or 7.

Some of this is case by case. Small barns dont want to lose horses. They drop more slowly. Big Barns have tons of places to send these horses if just to train. But then there will be 2YO coming in and only so much barn manpower to handle it. Horses gotta go. So if you see Pletcher and Repole in for $50K with a $500,000 Curlin chances are he is a rat. Ortiz will be up. He will be 6/5 and your guess is as good as mine on how to play it.

Hope it helped