Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Horses who made a (any) start KYDownsRacing the
> same calendar year as the Breeders Cup are
> 0-for-125 in the Breeders' Cup going back to 2001.
>
>
> Numbers aside the grass racing there is bizarre.
> Hexagon shaped course. One year the grass looks
> like US Open rough. The next year its all speed
> rock hard firm

I would only say the following - the real issue is not just tossing all those automatically. The issue is a question of price. In these situations I ask myself - what price is right for a horse breaking this streak. If they are giving me juicy enough odds - then I like to bet into this stat because the horse doesn't know the statistic and if the one that breaks the streak is suitably overlooked the price will be ridiculously juicy because of people tossing the horse without thinking about it.

One way to look at this is - look at the horse - if it comes in will you feel like an idiot for tossing it? That is the metric I use. Somebody gave the example of Cogburn. I would have had no problem tossing Cogburn even if he had beat me. You only have to hit bets against a horse like Cogburn a few times, not every time and not most times. The thing that really stinks is when you toss a 70-1 shot that otherwise figured and it is the one that bites you in the a$$. That is when you feel like an idiot. Sometimes in cases like this, I get idiot insurance and just put a few shekels across the board on the horse. That way if it comes in you dont feel like a total idiot. But I only get idiot insurance when the odds are so so long.