I wanted to follow up on an example I describe in my previous post about a play that Billy Walters described in his book in the Super Bowl between Arizona and Pittsburgh. His Team had studied every coin toss selection Pittsburgh had made that season and found and that whenever Pittsburgh won the toss they deferred. Arizona had won the Toss like 11 times and on like 7 occasions they took the ball. They determined this was a massive percentage swing in favor of Arizona scoring first no matter who won the toss. Because in all likelihood they would get the ball first. They had a minimum of $50K on this play. Did Billy himself walk into MGM and drop a briefcase with $50K and make the bet. NO!!! They had multiple runners who were making smaller individual bets and who had been coached to "I want to bet" instead of "WE want to bet". Avoiding the "who is we" question.

Roulette story. The percentages in Roulette are something like 52.5% in favor of the house 47.5% for the Player. Red/Black. Odd/Even doesn't matter. There is a 0 and a 00. House advantage. They thought they had detected worn down edges on an Atlantic City Wheel. Players were put at the table to play all day and stick to their plan of certain numbers. Ex NFL KC Chiefs OL Mo Moorman from Louisville (my hometown and I knew Mo on a hello Mr Moorman basis because he was a Member at my Family's golf club) was one such player. Walters himself could not do it. Mo was a guy who if you got on the first tee and said lets play for $5K a hole he would say lets make it $10K. And presses are automatic. He had made tens of Millions with a Budweiser Distributorship and found the Golden Goose when Corona came along. Some days they won a little some days they lost. No Card Counter wins every hand. It is a grind until the odds swing to you and that's what happened with the Roulette Wheel. They eventually cleaned the House for several million and it was time to move on.

Now what does this have to with CAW? In both examples I gave it was THEM versus the HOUSE. With CAW its them versus US!! The Tracks have given them a Rebate Discount. The percentage advantage is in their favor. The Tracks need their wagering volume. They have sold out the average player for the CAW and the CAW knows they only have to beat a group that doesn't have the same percentage advantages and most likely the capital. They don't have to beat them every race but grind them up over time and move on to the next score. Like the Roulette Wheel. And then what's left of the Sport?

We have really smart people on here like Fairmount who has tons of data but guess what they do to. And they have computer programs and algorithms. The same things Walters used for their NFL action. Along with their own Power Rating System. If the Spread was 3.5 for next Sundays game and their system said it should be 6.5 bet runners would be fanned out accordingly mid week. Their system worked and it is why so many people wanted in.

And this is who now controls the Horse Racing Pools. Billy partnered with a lot of people who also could help him from golfer Phil Mickelson, golfer Jim Colbert (they did course developments together), Hedge Fund legend Carl Ichan and the Hooker addicted and gambling addicted CEO of Dean Foods who brought him down in an Insider Trading deal. Billy did his time and is out. Is he in a CAW? He wouldn't tell anyone if he was. He doesn't need the money and might not need the hassle. But for a nice consulting fee.....

The game has sold its soul to these guys and they are Pros and have major deep pockets. MAJOR!!! I will be pulling back and will probably only play 4 more times between now and year end and my wagering will be contained. 2026 is TBD. The Game better come up with serious changes, transparency and reforms. Right now I will let the Sharks compete against the Sharks and Pidgeon's ....