Re: CAW and Billy Walters (255 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: November 10, 2025 08:52PM
Elite 2 is likely The Joker.
Elite 17 is likely Dr. Nick. (reportedly bet $650 million on US racing in 2023 through Elite Turf Club and reportedly bet $60 million on Del mar in 2021). Who knows if he has an account through Velocity with Churchill controlled signals?
They are both from Australia. These two are the largest CAW players or at least at last check of information available. As I understand it, Dr. Nick stole an idea from a large player where he makes up front payments to a track prior to the meet starting. Fairmount Park's handle increased by 8.7 million under new ownership this year. Trust me when I saw it ain't the retail bettors pumping in an extra 8 million. A very intelligent person in the professional gambling world theorized strongly that Dr. Nick made his up front payment to the track. This results in what some call a "Reverse Rebate." The tracks, like Del Mar, need the money up front to operate. From there, I'm not sure of the exact agreements, and so-called special deals. TDN once stated that such deals result in a "noticeably more favorable rate of play" without going into specifics. For Del Mar, such an arrangement involved a 7-figure up-front payment.
It is worth noting The Joker's involvement in the Texas Lottery and how they spent 70 million to take a lottery pool covering nearly every combo if I recall correctly. You can Google about that I'm sure.
Jerry is correct with how they play the game in many instances. It has been noted they do not play a part wheel ticket for instance. They will play a combo of fav/fav/fav/fav/fav for XX amount. Then fav/2nd/fav/fav/fav for XX-y. The amounts they play for each combo are in exact relation to their probability models. This is all good and wonderful they play outlandish and bizzaare combos down to the 50 cent incremement at times to scoop a pool. Where things get confusing . . . is when the vertical plays do not match up with the horizontal information ESPECIALLY AS I'VE NOTED WHEN THE HEAVY FAVORITES OFTEN NEED THE LEAD TYPES BREAK POOR OR LOSE ALL CHANCE BY DROPPING A JOCKEY. But note, there are multiple CAW teams besides even the two often cited. Some folks like to generalize and theorize, they (CAWs) don't show their hand in the double but in the p3 and they hit the exactas the hardest. I don't know with several CAW teams and playing in different amounts relative to each other, how they collide with each other sometimes affects the pools. Something tells me that one player has even better perks than other CAW teams up until the very, very, very last moments a wager can be made but that's just my opinion.
As for competing against them, I have spent the past year in the hours I'm not working sharpening my handicapping knives. Regular readers can probably tell that from my posts the last few months. I have stated and Boscar didn't disagree that the game can still be profitable for a sharp, disciplined player. But as a wise businessman told me about a job once that he didn't really want, there isn't much meat on the bone in today's game. They are playing even longshot chances correctly and at times, beyond correctly.
Is it worth playing still? That's each person's individual decision. But you have to know what you are getting involved in when your money goes in the pools. I can beat these guys straight up on the races I pick to play. I can't beat them playing every race. They are playing a completely different game. I don't think Only breaking even is ever their goal, but if they do, they still win. For the retail player, that is not true likely. And as one player noted to me and I've discussed with close friends since, you can't even think of getting in a rhythm of popping several races in a row b/c there isn't value in race after race as there used to be 20 years ago or so.
The CAW lawsuit needs to make it to discovery and then things will change. I guarantee there are many things the tracks don't want you to know. Consider why these CAW teams do not want to bet at 2 minutes to post in the win pool. While pondering that, I'm going to steal this thought from a Paulick Report to end this post. "The Stronach Group's spokespeople warn, 'this lawsuit is an attack on the entire industry and puts at risk the tens of thousands of working families and the communities that rely on it. This baseless lawsuit has the potential to devastate an entire industry.'"
The same folks who are wanting to decouple, have closed Golden Gate, have essentially closed Laurel and put Maryland in peril, and are doing all they can legislatively and via lawsuit claiming Equal Protection issues (which is laughable) to de-couple Gulfstream. They are the same folks taking shots at a retail gambler from Colorado taking on the CAW's. Now ponder why 1/st/Stronach/Belinda are so interested in calling the lawsuit baseless. If the tracks thought all of their CAW dealings were on the up-and-up, why wouldn't they in coordination with the CAW principals provide more transparency about everything involved unless. . . there are things they absolutely do NOT want you to know. That doesn't sound like "Parimutuel" to me ("Betting among ourselves").
The solution is to ban them legislatively. If Kentucky or NY would take this step, their total handle short term would suffer. But they can both weather the storm, and long term (and it wouldn't take very long) the retail money would POUR into their pools. The first state to do this will be a big winner long term is my position.
Elite 17 is likely Dr. Nick. (reportedly bet $650 million on US racing in 2023 through Elite Turf Club and reportedly bet $60 million on Del mar in 2021). Who knows if he has an account through Velocity with Churchill controlled signals?
They are both from Australia. These two are the largest CAW players or at least at last check of information available. As I understand it, Dr. Nick stole an idea from a large player where he makes up front payments to a track prior to the meet starting. Fairmount Park's handle increased by 8.7 million under new ownership this year. Trust me when I saw it ain't the retail bettors pumping in an extra 8 million. A very intelligent person in the professional gambling world theorized strongly that Dr. Nick made his up front payment to the track. This results in what some call a "Reverse Rebate." The tracks, like Del Mar, need the money up front to operate. From there, I'm not sure of the exact agreements, and so-called special deals. TDN once stated that such deals result in a "noticeably more favorable rate of play" without going into specifics. For Del Mar, such an arrangement involved a 7-figure up-front payment.
It is worth noting The Joker's involvement in the Texas Lottery and how they spent 70 million to take a lottery pool covering nearly every combo if I recall correctly. You can Google about that I'm sure.
Jerry is correct with how they play the game in many instances. It has been noted they do not play a part wheel ticket for instance. They will play a combo of fav/fav/fav/fav/fav for XX amount. Then fav/2nd/fav/fav/fav for XX-y. The amounts they play for each combo are in exact relation to their probability models. This is all good and wonderful they play outlandish and bizzaare combos down to the 50 cent incremement at times to scoop a pool. Where things get confusing . . . is when the vertical plays do not match up with the horizontal information ESPECIALLY AS I'VE NOTED WHEN THE HEAVY FAVORITES OFTEN NEED THE LEAD TYPES BREAK POOR OR LOSE ALL CHANCE BY DROPPING A JOCKEY. But note, there are multiple CAW teams besides even the two often cited. Some folks like to generalize and theorize, they (CAWs) don't show their hand in the double but in the p3 and they hit the exactas the hardest. I don't know with several CAW teams and playing in different amounts relative to each other, how they collide with each other sometimes affects the pools. Something tells me that one player has even better perks than other CAW teams up until the very, very, very last moments a wager can be made but that's just my opinion.
As for competing against them, I have spent the past year in the hours I'm not working sharpening my handicapping knives. Regular readers can probably tell that from my posts the last few months. I have stated and Boscar didn't disagree that the game can still be profitable for a sharp, disciplined player. But as a wise businessman told me about a job once that he didn't really want, there isn't much meat on the bone in today's game. They are playing even longshot chances correctly and at times, beyond correctly.
Is it worth playing still? That's each person's individual decision. But you have to know what you are getting involved in when your money goes in the pools. I can beat these guys straight up on the races I pick to play. I can't beat them playing every race. They are playing a completely different game. I don't think Only breaking even is ever their goal, but if they do, they still win. For the retail player, that is not true likely. And as one player noted to me and I've discussed with close friends since, you can't even think of getting in a rhythm of popping several races in a row b/c there isn't value in race after race as there used to be 20 years ago or so.
The CAW lawsuit needs to make it to discovery and then things will change. I guarantee there are many things the tracks don't want you to know. Consider why these CAW teams do not want to bet at 2 minutes to post in the win pool. While pondering that, I'm going to steal this thought from a Paulick Report to end this post. "The Stronach Group's spokespeople warn, 'this lawsuit is an attack on the entire industry and puts at risk the tens of thousands of working families and the communities that rely on it. This baseless lawsuit has the potential to devastate an entire industry.'"
The same folks who are wanting to decouple, have closed Golden Gate, have essentially closed Laurel and put Maryland in peril, and are doing all they can legislatively and via lawsuit claiming Equal Protection issues (which is laughable) to de-couple Gulfstream. They are the same folks taking shots at a retail gambler from Colorado taking on the CAW's. Now ponder why 1/st/Stronach/Belinda are so interested in calling the lawsuit baseless. If the tracks thought all of their CAW dealings were on the up-and-up, why wouldn't they in coordination with the CAW principals provide more transparency about everything involved unless. . . there are things they absolutely do NOT want you to know. That doesn't sound like "Parimutuel" to me ("Betting among ourselves").
The solution is to ban them legislatively. If Kentucky or NY would take this step, their total handle short term would suffer. But they can both weather the storm, and long term (and it wouldn't take very long) the retail money would POUR into their pools. The first state to do this will be a big winner long term is my position.
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