Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (325 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: November 13, 2025 07:20PM

The math works out to $879 of winning exacta payouts. If the exacta payout was in concert with the win odds, there would have been $203 of winning exacta payouts for an expected $1 exacta payoff of $291.00 instead of the actual $67.30 for $1.

There are at least two points of note here. This is in New York where the win pools are cutoff at 2 minutes to post supposedly. So, using Non-Caw Final Win odds in comparison to CAW-infested Exacta payoffs is not comparing apples to apples.

The other point is that this is not "going for a score." This is covering the bases of possible outcomes of the race in concert with the probability models spit out by their algorithms. One reason, among others, that they need to bet very, very last is so that they can calculate how much of their wagers will make up the entire pool and bet the percentages of the various combos correctly in relation to that Expected Final Pool Total that includes their final bets.

But hey, it is all just "CAW Hype" folks. They only "go for a score." They don't deplete every reasonable possibility that their model suggests (Sarcasm).

It is true they are not always right. They were here and they reduced the payoff by about $230 by my math (if the expected exacta payoffs are supposed to be in relation to the win odds which as stated is not an exact comparison in NY anymore).



Subject Written By Posted
Aqueduct Race 2 today (501 Views) Mickeycharles 11/12/2025 05:49PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (325 Views) Fairmount1 11/13/2025 07:20PM
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Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (292 Views) Focus959 11/13/2025 08:52PM
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Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (312 Views) TGJB 11/14/2025 11:25AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (274 Views) Fairmount1 11/14/2025 09:09PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (247 Views) Gary Irish 11/15/2025 07:28AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (238 Views) Fairmount1 11/15/2025 11:19AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (260 Views) banditbeau 11/15/2025 11:48AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (303 Views) TGJB 11/15/2025 04:40PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (288 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/13/2025 11:15PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (272 Views) Roman 11/14/2025 12:26PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (262 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/14/2025 02:14PM


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