Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (244 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: November 13, 2025 07:20PM

The math works out to $879 of winning exacta payouts. If the exacta payout was in concert with the win odds, there would have been $203 of winning exacta payouts for an expected $1 exacta payoff of $291.00 instead of the actual $67.30 for $1.

There are at least two points of note here. This is in New York where the win pools are cutoff at 2 minutes to post supposedly. So, using Non-Caw Final Win odds in comparison to CAW-infested Exacta payoffs is not comparing apples to apples.

The other point is that this is not "going for a score." This is covering the bases of possible outcomes of the race in concert with the probability models spit out by their algorithms. One reason, among others, that they need to bet very, very last is so that they can calculate how much of their wagers will make up the entire pool and bet the percentages of the various combos correctly in relation to that Expected Final Pool Total that includes their final bets.

But hey, it is all just "CAW Hype" folks. They only "go for a score." They don't deplete every reasonable possibility that their model suggests (Sarcasm).

It is true they are not always right. They were here and they reduced the payoff by about $230 by my math (if the expected exacta payoffs are supposed to be in relation to the win odds which as stated is not an exact comparison in NY anymore).



Subject Written By Posted
Aqueduct Race 2 today (367 Views) Mickeycharles 11/12/2025 05:49PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (244 Views) Fairmount1 11/13/2025 07:20PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (207 Views) banditbeau 11/13/2025 08:31PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (220 Views) Focus959 11/13/2025 08:52PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (202 Views) RICH 11/14/2025 10:19AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (234 Views) TGJB 11/14/2025 11:25AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (199 Views) Fairmount1 11/14/2025 09:09PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (162 Views) Gary Irish 11/15/2025 07:28AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (162 Views) Fairmount1 11/15/2025 11:19AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (175 Views) banditbeau 11/15/2025 11:48AM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (208 Views) TGJB 11/15/2025 04:40PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (210 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/13/2025 11:15PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (195 Views) Roman 11/14/2025 12:26PM
Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (195 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/14/2025 02:14PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.