Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today (244 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: November 13, 2025 07:20PM
The math works out to $879 of winning exacta payouts. If the exacta payout was in concert with the win odds, there would have been $203 of winning exacta payouts for an expected $1 exacta payoff of $291.00 instead of the actual $67.30 for $1.
There are at least two points of note here. This is in New York where the win pools are cutoff at 2 minutes to post supposedly. So, using Non-Caw Final Win odds in comparison to CAW-infested Exacta payoffs is not comparing apples to apples.
The other point is that this is not "going for a score." This is covering the bases of possible outcomes of the race in concert with the probability models spit out by their algorithms. One reason, among others, that they need to bet very, very last is so that they can calculate how much of their wagers will make up the entire pool and bet the percentages of the various combos correctly in relation to that Expected Final Pool Total that includes their final bets.
But hey, it is all just "CAW Hype" folks. They only "go for a score." They don't deplete every reasonable possibility that their model suggests (Sarcasm).
It is true they are not always right. They were here and they reduced the payoff by about $230 by my math (if the expected exacta payoffs are supposed to be in relation to the win odds which as stated is not an exact comparison in NY anymore).
There are at least two points of note here. This is in New York where the win pools are cutoff at 2 minutes to post supposedly. So, using Non-Caw Final Win odds in comparison to CAW-infested Exacta payoffs is not comparing apples to apples.
The other point is that this is not "going for a score." This is covering the bases of possible outcomes of the race in concert with the probability models spit out by their algorithms. One reason, among others, that they need to bet very, very last is so that they can calculate how much of their wagers will make up the entire pool and bet the percentages of the various combos correctly in relation to that Expected Final Pool Total that includes their final bets.
But hey, it is all just "CAW Hype" folks. They only "go for a score." They don't deplete every reasonable possibility that their model suggests (Sarcasm).
It is true they are not always right. They were here and they reduced the payoff by about $230 by my math (if the expected exacta payoffs are supposed to be in relation to the win odds which as stated is not an exact comparison in NY anymore).
| Subject | Written By | Posted |
|---|---|---|
| Mickeycharles | 11/12/2025 05:49PM | |
| Fairmount1 | 11/13/2025 07:20PM | |
| banditbeau | 11/13/2025 08:31PM | |
| Focus959 | 11/13/2025 08:52PM | |
| RICH | 11/14/2025 10:19AM | |
| TGJB | 11/14/2025 11:25AM | |
| Fairmount1 | 11/14/2025 09:09PM | |
| Gary Irish | 11/15/2025 07:28AM | |
| Fairmount1 | 11/15/2025 11:19AM | |
| banditbeau | 11/15/2025 11:48AM | |
| TGJB | 11/15/2025 04:40PM | |
| Boscar Obarra | 11/13/2025 11:15PM | |
| Roman | 11/14/2025 12:26PM | |
| Boscar Obarra | 11/14/2025 02:14PM |
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