I am lucky enough to be showing up to Colonial Downs to support my friendSSS that own a horse in the Virginia Derby. I'm told many folks have picked him including Aragona.

On HRRN, Scully picked the horse. Neuman theorized that while he doesn't know these folks "Let It Ride Equine Holdings" that they almost assuredly would sell if they win this race just a mere workout or two away from a Kentucky Derby start. Let me help them out with some handicapping. While the phone is always open, there's a reason the name of the group is Let It Ride. It is possible that people that live near St. Louis and call Fairmount Park their home track actually love racing more than the bluebloods of Kentucky, the latest billionaire owners, and the supertrainers' star owners.

On a serious handicapping note, the horse can run obviously. "Can he run on dirt" is the question. Two of his CD works from Nov are available for you to make your own pre-race conclusions in this regard. Truthfully, until these horses race on it, does anyone really know? I will point out that the trainer could have left him on the poly track for the Jeff Ruby Stakes instead of this dirt spot.

As for his last start at Turfway Park, an 8 length win, there were three mile poly races that night. Feb. 7.

Race 2: Fascinator, 23.98, 48.23, 1:14.25, 1:27.76, 1:41.32, 65 Beyer, 88 Timeform US
Race 4: I Lucked Out, 24.37, 48.17, 1:13.23, 1:25.85, 1:38.98, 91 Beyer, 113 Timeform US
Race 7: LockstocknPharoah, 24.04, 48.36, 1:13.48, 1:25.90, 1:39.04, 82 Beyer, 99b Timeform US. (says 101b in chart, 99b in the Timeform PP's)

Beyer and Timeform quite obviously "broke Out" Race 7. (Credit to Timeform US for marking the b notation on their figs when they do that). I am not certain how TG handled their figs that night or BrisNet's treatment. These "broke out" figures mean that his Beyer and Timeform are lower for [fill in the reason they think they could not tie the races together, namely 4 and 7 that are very, very similar]. If they had not broke race 7 out, the higher figures would point potentially to LSP being a stand out. But plenty of handicappers are on him already with his undefeated 2 for 2 record and the way he won in both. His debut is worth watching.

I have no clue what price he goes off based on all the talk I've heard. But if he goes at his m/l, I do believe he offers real value based on his poly figure [if it had been tied to race 4 on Feb 7].

If he translates that poly form to dirt, the gelding can win. If the poly form does not translate, well that question gets answered.

For now, the Dream is alive and well. And if Baffert, Pletcher, Cox and their owners all lose to a crew from Fairmount, it will be a day to remember forever. If not, my friends and I will get them one day ;)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2026 09:34PM by Fairmount1.