Here is a summary of Derby odds of the top six choices in the Derby since 2001. The “modern era� started in 2001 when they removed the mutual fields and coupled betting interests. Since then, there have been at least 16 betting interests in the field and as many as 20 with many of the years having at least 18 betting interests.

Summary of Odds/1 from 2001-2025 (with no pandemic year as that produced a 70 cent favorite run in September)
1st Favorite - range = 1.8-6.3 (nine under 3.0, fifteen over 3.0)
2nd Favorite - range = 4.3-8.1 (fifteen under 6.0, nine over 6.0)
3rd Favorite - range = 5.0-10.3 (eleven under 7.0, thirteen over 7.0)
4th Favorite - range = 6.8-13.1 (twelve under 9.0, twelve over 9.0)
5th Favorite - range = 8.1-17.7 (fourteen under 10.0, ten over 10.0)
6th Favorite - range = 9.5-18.9 (eleven under 12.0, thirteen over 12.0)
Winner’s Odds - range = 2.3-80.8 (eleven under 6.0, thirteen over 6.0)

Some things that stick out to me. In terms of the favorites, we have only seen one odds-on choice in the last 25 years - that was in the pandemic Derby that was run later in the year when form seemed to be better established with different prep races and time intervals. Since that is such an outlier, it will not be considered. We have also seen a bunch of favorites between 9/5 and 5/2 (9 of them - almost half in the sample). I find it somewhat odd that we have not seen too many “lukewarm� favorites in the 3/1 to 4/1 range as most of the other favorites were 4/1 or higher - with more than 20% of them being over 5/1. Strangely, we have had only two horses go off at odds of 3/1 or 7/2 in the Kentucky Derby since 2001. I suspect in 2025 the same thing might happen as in 2004 with the odds of the first three favorites being somewhere between 4/1 and 6/1.

Only one time was the second favorite less than 9/2 (he was 4.3/1). The lowest priced third favorite was 5.6/1. About 50% of the time the 4th favorite is under 9/1 and 13% of the time the 5th favorite is under those odds as well. There have only been two instances since 2001 where the 6th favorite was under 10/1. In 2016, we had a year with only 2 horses in single digit odds.

24 Years of Derby Odds (Not Including Pandemic Year)
Year - 1stFav - 2ndFav - 3rdFav - 4thFav - 5thFav - 6thFav - Winners Odds
2025 - 3.42 - 5.77 - 7.98 - 8.24 - 12.51 - 13.86 - 7.98
2024 - 3.21 - 4.79 - 7.03 - 8.47 - 11.57 - 14.90 - 18.61
2023 - 4.06 - 4.53 - 7.80 - 9.87 - 11.72 - 14.30 - 15.21
2022 - 4.1 - 5.8 - 6.1 - 7.1 - 10.1 - 14.1 - 80.8
2021 - 2.9 - 4.7 - 5.6 - 9.9 - 10.7 - 12.1 - 12.1**
2019 - 4.0 - 4.5 - 5.0 - 6.8 - 11.6 - 14.5 - 4.5*
2018 - 2.9 - 6.7 - 6.8 - 7.0 - 8.8 - 9.7 - 2.9
2017 - 4.7 - 4.8 - 6.8 - 6.9 - 10.0 - 14.1 - 4.7
2016 - 2.3 - 5.1 - 10.3 - 11.8 - 12.8 - 16.4 - 2.3
2015 - 2.9 - 4.3 - 7.7 - 9.5 - 10.3 - 11.5 - 2.9
2014 - 2.5 - 6.5 - 8.7 - 9.4 - 14.1 - 16.0 - 2.5
2013 - 5.4 - 6.4 - 7.9 - 8.7 - 9.3 - 9.5 - 5.4
2012 - 4.2 - 5.1 - 8.6 - 11.9 - 11.9 - 12.1 - 15.3
2011 - 5.2 - 8.1 - 8.5 - 9.3 - 9.6 - 11.9 - 20.9
2010 - 6.3 - 8.0 - 9.5 - 10.9 - 11.6 - 11.7 - 8.0
2009 - 3.8 - 5.2 - 6.3 - 10.0 - 10.3 - 12.2 - 50.6
2008 - 2.4 - 4.7 - 5.7 - 13.1 - 17.7 - 18.9 - 2.4
2007 - 4.9 - 5.0 - 7.2 - 10.0 - 10.4 - 11.4 - 4.9
2006 - 5.5 - 6.1 - 7.7 - 9.4 - 9.7 - 10.2 - 6.1
2005 - 2.6 - 4.5 - 6.8 - 7.1 - 12.3 - 15.7 - 50.3
2004 - 4.1 - 5.4 - 6.4 - 8.2 - 10.6 - 10.9 - 4.1
2003 - 2.5 - 6.3 - 6.6 - 7.2 - 8.9 - 10.8 - 12.8
2002 - 6.0 - 6.9 - 6.9 - 7.9 - 8.1 - 10.0 - 20.5
2001 - 1.8 - 6.6 - 7.2 - 8.3 - 9.9 - 10.5 - 10.5