If anyone wants to guarantee who the Derby favorite will be, I am all ears. I have reasons to knock all three of the top choices from going as the favorite at post time. I have an idea what I think but I am not there 100% yet on who my guess would be at this stage and obviously post will matter quite a bit.

Why does it matter? As documented last year, the favorite has hit the super every year since 2012 except once (13 of 14 Derby's and the one that missed was Todd with Fierceness). And at least 2 of the top 4 choices have hit the super every year since 2013 when the points era started.

Also of note at first glance, the last three years a Japanese connected horse went off at: 3rd choice (7-1), 3rd choice (7-1), 4th choice (8-1).