Fairmont,

Here is my opinion on the matter. We can get some steam on someone as we get closer, but at this point I think it will be Renegade. The Kentucky Derby is the most publicly driven wagering event in horse racing. Not everyone pushing dollars through the windows are complete newbies, many have some experience with horse racing and have their preconceived notions and ideas. In addition, some will not be wagering as “sophisticatedly� as others. Because of this, we need to look at a variety of things that may affect where the wagering dollars go.

I think Irad moves the needle more than any jockey and given he is on Renegade rather than Commandment or Further Ado makes it very likely that Renegade will be the favorite. This I think will be the biggest factor in terms on determining who goes off favored. As you mention there will be lots of water under the bridge prior to post and other things such as works and the draw especially could have a significant influence on the betting. I think occasional fans will gravitate towards the recognizable connections regardless of the prior performances in the Derby (Pletcher is 65-2-2-4 in the race and Irad is a surprising 9-0-0-0 in the Derby with one superfecta finish). Pletcher will likely only have one starter with the declaration of Class President, while Cox will have multiple horses that will all be "betable" so trainer fans will not have to split their action on Renegade. Plus, Renegade is a pretty “cool� name that will attract some tote action - I suspect there are likely more horse playing Styx fans (and 90's TV shows fans) out there compared to Shakespeare (Further Ado) or Bible fans (Commandment). 😊

As we saw with Sandman last year, a social influencer type may have significant pull in terms of odds, I am not involved with any aspect of that so I am not aware of any significant push in that area. Heck, if Taylor Swift bought ANY of the Derby horses tomorrow that could drive them to favoritism.

I think Renegade's win in the Arkansas Derby was impressive enough to hold on to many of those that got on his bandwagon after that race and his Beyer figure at 98 seems to be enough to hold sway. I have a lot of respect for Nick Tammaro, who has been tasked with making the morning line for the Oaks and the Derby this year. I suspect if he put out at line at this point in time he would make Renegade 7/2, Further Ado 4/1 and Commandment 6/1. I could also see each a half point to a point higher but keeping the same order.

No guarantees, but If I get the same odds on all three horses to be both the morning line and post-time favorite my money would be on Renegade.