The Derby win pool is a fickle place for money.

When Renegade crossed the finish line, one of my close friends texted that moment in a group chat, "Mark it down, there's your favorite, 3-1." The Todd factor actually has slowed steam on some horses the past few years in my opinion. The simple visual difference between a triple-digit Beyer and a double-digit Beyer in DRF is enough to sway folks that know a little handicapping something but don't put in the time away from Renegade. Irad will take significant money I will agree. Renegade's Remson (with Paladin), his 3yo starts, his connections including the owners with Repole involved, and the way he won in Arkansas all point to him possibly being the favorite. But I am not convinced.

Further Ado went out and ran a hole in the Versailles, Kentucky wind and whistled home with a 106 Beyer. He has two monster efforts showing on the page but both were at Keeneland suggesting a horse for course. Even my most novice racing friends are telling me about the bounce though. Cox has not won the Derby, at least by crossing the line first. This horse has the right running style if you believe the pace will not be hot. (Six Speed and Pavlovian will determine how that plays out most likely). When they crossed the wire, I was in the Keeneland grandstand with a very close, sharp friend who said, "Wow, 2nd choice." I replied "When the Beyer comes back a 104, is he your favorite?" That was my first reaction. But I am still not convinced.

Commandment has two Beyer's of 100 or better. I think some serious money will gravitate to that fact. However, the Jockey Hot Potato horse will draw some criticism (and displace some win money) simply b/c Irad went to Renegade and Prat went to Chad (Prat has hit the super every time I believe on a side note). Aragona among other folks believe his ability to run between horses and confidently make a winning move might make him the pick. His work leading into the Derby could influence his price. Cox, again, has not won the Derby on race day. I do not think he will go favored but if he were to work really, really well, I guess it is not impossible??

Crown Pride a few years back went off 17-1 (setting a blistering pace as I recall). How that happened I will never know but that's another example of the Japanese influence. Danon Bourbon will take some money and might even crack into the top 3 based on the last three years as I cited in my prior post??

The Puma is a horse that MANY people I respect and know are really interested in playing. I would not be surprised if he takes more money than one of the top 3 listed above although which one may be b/c of drawing the 1 post let's say?? Derby winning trainer unlike Cox and has some company lines with Commandment, Further Ado, Chief, Etc

The past four years there have been four horses less than 10-1 all four years. Personally, I won't be surprised if this year the favorite is 5-1 or more if all of these horses make it to the gate. It has been a while since that happened. Recent years, the favorite gets below that 5-1 mark. But it happened five times since 2001 (that the favorite was 5-1 or higher) and this looks like that kind of year to me right now. 3 of those 5 times resulted in six, five, and six horses all under 10-1. That's the type of situation I am seeing.



Edited 6 time(s). Last edit at 04/12/2026 12:14PM by Fairmount1.