A match race, then I thought. White Abarrio or Sovereignty. Then, on second thought, not so much.

I saw a morning line on White Abbario of 7/2. OK, he's seven years old. He's White. He's trained by Saffie. He started this year with a -1. Last year, he started with a -4 and arguably had the best year of his career. So I figure he either wins or is out of the verticals.

Sovereignty's morning line is odds on 4/5, and I don't see it getting any higher. So if White Abbario doesn't freak, Sovereignty wins unless something goes wrong.

Journalism at 5/2 on the morning line. This is a hell of a racehorse if you hadn't noticed. Consistent, durable, with the ability to run on or near the front. So he's likely to get the lead at some point Saturday and must be passed to win.

If White Abarrio regresses, the Sovereignty/Journalism exacta will be a popular play, only boxing it out of habit.

It is a three-horse race, isn't it? What order is the question? The best realistic payoff would be White Abbario/Journalism. Not inconceivable for me, but probably not a bet I'll make. White Abbario only gets on a win ticket for me.

It's very iffy, yet I suppose Journalism could beat Sovereignty. Would the reward be worth the risk? I suppose they could finish with White Abarrio before or behind Journalism in trifectas. Think I have not convinced myself to play that way, along with the Win ticket on the Saffie Joseph entry. I think I'd prefer a super with Liberal Arts and Publisher in third and fourth places in place of the white horse.

As they say, it's hard to find any value with a legitimate favorite in the field. Any ideas?