This is a long post - if you want to just read the data itself, there is a summary of the horses that broke from the rail in the Kentucky Derby since 2000 with year, name, odds, comments including chart summary, and finish position with the total number of entrants.

Most people will point out that a rail horse has not won the Derby since 1986 (Ferdinand) and that took a spectacular ride from the Shoe himself to get Ferdinand to the wire first. They will also point out that the inside must be bad as the two hole has not had a winner since Affirmed won in 1978 – it took a Triple Crown winner to make that post good. After all, they will tell you, that 2 hole is what did in Sierra Leone. But would you rather have post 17? That one is 0/46 with just three in the money finishes. The last horse to win from post 14 was Carry Back – that was before I was born (1961). Posts 12 and 9 have not seen winners since Pink Floyd released "Dark Side of the Moon" (1971 and 1972 respectively).

There are opposing forces at work here. The rail trip provides the shortest distance between the starting gate and finish line. That is a positive. Since many of entrants look to find the shortest trip possible around the oval, the most traffic is often on the rail as there are numerous horses diving to the inside and that can lead to the rail horse getting shuffled back, checking or getting slammed into from horses coming over so the chances of a clean trip are reduced. As mentioned previously, there is a relatively new 20 horse starting gate at CD made exclusively for the Kentucky Derby (they have used it since the 2020 race). Besides getting rid of the extra space for the auxiliary gate, each stall is narrower than the previous ones. My understanding is the Great White is a big, hulking horse - he may not fit too well in the narrower gate if he draws in. If I remember correctly, Dortmund was a big horse and he had issues with the gate. These changes reduce the overall width of the gate and helps to mitigate the overlap between the inside posts and starting on the far turn as the inside post had to veer right some out of the gate to miss the rail in the previous configuration. Looking at videos of subsequent Kentucky Derbies the inside post is still looks like it dips a bit into the far turn but that might be an optical illusion. The other problem is that it generally is tougher for some horses to break from the extreme inside or outside because of the added space. I am not sure how much the new gate will change these statistics. My guess is not much, but only time will tell. The one positive thing that rail enthusiasts can refer to is that the average finish position of the rail post in the Kentucky Derby since 1930 is 8.11 - fifth best overall in the field. The problem is that many of those earlier editions did not have these hulking 20 horse fields.

I have looked at every edition of the Kentucky Derby since 2000 using both the video replay and the associated charts to see how the rail horse fared. The actual results may initially not appear to be that encouraging and analysis on this limited data set still makes things a bit equivocal. First off, there were 0 (yes zero) wins and just one in the money finish from the rail in that timeframe. That’s 25-0-1-0 in 25 years. However, there were 2 fourths and 4 fifths over that same time period. This is not very encouraging and may be offset some when you look at the charts and the actual odds of the horses, which may he higher because public’s general distaste of the rail draw. First off, the shortest priced horses were Looking At Lucky at 6/1 (floated up from the 3/1 morning line favorite – there’s that distaste for the rail speaking) and Johannesburg at 8-1. There were seven horses between 10/1 and 20/1, while the other horses were at least 20-1, so from a betting standpoint, their chances were likely not great to begin with.

What I find interesting is that the charts don’t give as much indication of trouble as most people assume. The major issue with breaking from the rail seems to be fairly consistent comments regarding some sort of poor break. Whether it's broke in, broke out, or broke slowly, there seems to be an awful lot of that. However, many horses from the rail seemed to work out a decent enough trip but just did not have the punch in the stretch - I would assume some of those were because of how they broke and they had to make up too much ground. Horses that had notations about getting shuffled back checked or encountering other trouble were Supah Blitz, Limehouse, Archarcharch, Oxbow, Vicars in Trouble, Trojan Nation, War of Will and of course the poster child for bad rail trips in the Derby, Lookin at Lucky. Interestingly, I first did this analysis when Lookin at Lucky drew the rail and my conclusion was that the rail was not the death knell for him – I will admit on that occasion I was wrong, but I am not convinced that overall, it is a death sentence. As an example of how karma can come full circle, his son Lookin at Lee in 2017 had one of the best trips starting from the rail ever in the Derby and finished second. I almost left off War of Will because his trouble started when he came off the rail, but he still started on the rail. He had a clean trip until the point he decided to come off the rail. In summary, according to the charts less than 1/3 of the horses breaking from the rail had trips that seemed to be compromised in some way or form – sometimes seemingly relatively minor and sometimes fairly significant (but we all know there are other things that happen that may not land in the chart notes). Also remember in a 20 horse field there are going to be a bunch of checking, bumping and going wide so it is not just the inside horses that end up with poor trips. I do think the further inside you are, the more likely it is your trip is going to compromised, but not to the degree of which it is often stated nor is it automatic.

The other thing I find interesting is that seven of the Kentucky Derby rail starters since 2007 went on the win one of the two remaining Triple Crown races (Preakness - Early Voting, War of Will, Oxbow, Lookin At Lucky and Belmont - Dornoch, Mo Donegal and Jazil). Not sure how much that is going to mean this weekend, but do not sleep on Renegade if he makes it to the Belmont no matter how he runs on Saturday. I would not expect to see him in the Preakness unless he won, and even then, who knows.

Below is a summary of the horses that broke from the rail with year, name, odds, comments including chart summary, and finish position with the total number of entrants so you can see the data I looked at and make your own interpretation.

2000 Anees 17/1. Swerved at start, broke awkwardly, failed to menace. 13/19
2001 Songandaprayer. 35/1. Hustled to the front along the rail soon after the start, made the pace under pressure to the second turn, then tired from the effort. 13/17
2002 Johannesburg. 8/1. Well placed along the inside from the start, raced in hand to the second turn while within striking distance saving ground, continued inside into the stretch but came up empty when asked. 8/18
2003 Supah Blitz. 43/1. Came out brushing BRANCUSI after the start, saved ground, was checked lightly soon after passing the wire the first time and failed to menace. 13/16
2004 Limehouse. 41/1. Was shuffled back a bit along the inside on the first turn, raced in the middle of the pack for six furlongs, saved ground while launching his bid approaching the quarter pole, made a run to reach contention in midstretch but couldn't sustain his bid. 4/18
2005 Sort It Out. 67/1. Never reached contention so it is hard to gauge any effect from starting on the rail. 17/20
2006 Jazil. 24/1. Swerved in at the start, was unhurried while outrun for six furlongs, continued to save ground while rallying along the rail on the far turn, angled out between foes four wide when entering the upper stretch to make a serious bid but failed to sustain his effort while dead heating with BROTHER DEREK for fourth. 4/20
2007 Sedgefield. 58/1. Forwardly placed near the inside from the outset, raced within easy striking distance into the upper stretch and came up empty. 5/20
2008 Cool Coal Man. 34/1.Taken in hand after an alert beginning to race within striking distance along the inside, held on well for seven furlongs and faded. 15/20
2009 West Side Bernie. 32/1. Outrun early along the inside, failed to respond when asked to pick up the pace, angled out five wide once in the stretch and could not threaten. 9/19
2010 Lookin at Lucky 6/1. Poster child for perilous rail draw, he was roughed at start and then again soon after, menaced on the turn and flattened out. (note 3/1 in morning line, drifted up to 6/1 because of the post). 6/20
2011 Archarcharch 12/1. Steadied at start, saddle slipped, pulled up. He was vanned off because he appeared to be lame. 15/19
2012 Daddy Long Legs 26/1. Eased, no trouble noted at start. DNF/20
2013 Oxbow 24/1. Bumped at start, made nice move on the rail to get near the lead and flattened out last furlong. 6/19
2014 Vicars in Trouble 20/1. Checked and bounced inside of foes. Got into contention then was eased and ended up 19th. Note starting gate 1 was left open due to scratches. 19/19
2015 Ocho Ocho Ocho 26/1. Taken firmly in hand to rate off Carpe Diem, made mild run on inside and tired late. 14/18
2016 Trojan Nation 42/1. Checked after start, lagged on inside, failed to threaten. 16/20
2017 Lookin at Lee 33/1. Interestingly had the best rail trip in the modern era – maybe it was good karma from his father. The abbreviated line notes says “dream inside trip to 1/8� so the rail is not an automatic toss. He settled well back while saving ground, picked up pace on far turn, skimmed the rail and rallied to get the place. 2/20
2018 Firenze Fire 59/1. Edged up between runners early, tracked on the rail into the far turn, angled out into the lane and gave in. 11/20
2019 War of Will 16/1. Found a good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three-path to upper stretch and weakened. 8/19
2020 Max Player 19/1. MAX PLAYER reserved off of the inside, moved out between rivals four to five wide on the far turn, churned on in traffic and improved position. 5/15
2021 Known Agenda 10/1. Known Agenda was unhurried along the inside, shifted out into the stretch and improved under stern urging. 9/19
2022 Mo Donegal 10/1. Broke awkwardly and was away behind the field, was unhurried toward the inside near the back of the pack, wheeled out ten wide leaving the second turn and was making up ground too late. 5/20
2023 Hit Show 24/1. Tracked the top flight from the two to three path around the far turn, responded
to rousing to range up outside of the leading trio entering the far turn, gradually progressed around that bend to spin into the lane in the five path while within striking range but flattened out between horses. 5/18
2024 Dornoch 22/1. Settled saving ground, was shuffled back in traffic inside the half mile marker, came again between foes, was bumped and checked hard off heels near the quarter pole, angled out into the stretch but came up empty in the drive. 10/20
2025 Citizen Bull 13/1. Broke out severely stacking up five runners to his outside, disputed the pace toward the inside, relinquished the lead into the second turn and retreated. 13/19