The board used to be full of well thought-out posts with information supporting a handicapping position. Those days are largely long gone. Bravo on an excellent post about a poor post.

A few years back I undertook this endeavor by watching all the replays of the 1 hole. I didn't take the notes that you did or write up the summary. I did, however, see similar. The 1 hole really did not produce horrible trips. The 1 hole is likely to stand in the gate longer than anyone else though. And 19 horses are lined up outside of you when the gates are sprung. I can't equate it accurately to another scenario. But as a college basketball fan, I wonder if this is similar to being at Allen Fieldhouse, down two points as the road team, less than a minute to go, after a long timeout having to shoot a one-and-one, the crowd is obnoxious, it is Big Monday on espn, the co-eds are lined up in the front row as a distraction, signs being waved all over the student section and you feel all that pressure only to clank it off the rim even as career 92% FT shooter. Are horse and rider feeling all that pressure also by the time numbers 10 and 20 load and gates open?? Maybe, maybe not. But the 1 hole certainly has some challenges.

Bottom line is Renegade will need a perfect, and I mean perfect, trip to win this race. Combine that with Todd's Derby record on a fast track, Irad's Derby record, the deep closer role already, and now the 1 hole's record, and it all adds up to a toss for the win spot for me. And I likely toss him from all positions.