I have a good friend who has pushed me to answer why So Happy can not win the race. He has stated that no one says more than they just don't like the horse.

Mark Glatt, at CD, the past 5 years is 1 for 12. 7 of those were under 4-1 with losses at .78-1, 1.71-1. More recently, he was 0 for 8 in 2025 at CD.

On the breeding front, none of the top 20 progeny of RunHappy have ever won at 1 1/4 miles. Smiling Happy and Happy American have shown some good number power at 1 1/16 miles. The mom won twice at 6f. The 2 siblings to race are 3 for 19 combined with an 0 for 8 record at routes.

As they said in Coming To America, Joe Louis is 137 years old. I actually have no knock on Mike Smith in this spot but just wanted to take a shot at him for being the old guy in the room. :)

Trainer strike at CD, Breeding strike at the distance, jockey strike on age, You're Out.
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Meanwhile, the breeding on Danon Bourbon is interesting.

Maxfield was 5 for 5 at Churchill Downs. Walsh debuted a Maxfield horse yesterday that earned a 106 Beyer on Dirt at 6f at Kee (after a very cold start at Kee, he is rolling now as evidenced by that filly winning today in racehorse time at CD). Deveaux brings in Englishman into the Pat Day Mile off 95 and 97 Beyers by Maxfield.

Several horses have won at a route for Maxfield in the top 20 progeny and Danon won at 1 3/16 miles and twice at 9 furlongs.

The dam had a single win at a mile on turf in slow time. The siblings don't show much route breeding although in October a sibling won a MdnClm6250 dirt sprint at Fairmount Park. :)

Danon's time for the distance on that date and the day before are stellar compared to older horses including a stakes one day difference. His time for the stakes race is the best as far back as one can look likely which has been well publicized. He has the same style as Further Ado who many are coo coo-ing over I hear at likely favoritism.

The morning line makers (seen two, CD and DRF) don't think Danon takes the same money as the Japanese top choice the last 3 years. We shall see what price he is on race day I guess. I have him under 10-1 at race time but I must be way wrong here? If he is 15-1 or above . . . I will use and we should know early on in the weekend.

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I am not saying either one of these horses wins or loses. But at least here are some thoughts about why each may or may not have a shot for you and maybe why or why not to play. I am sure you can guess which one will be on some tickets for me. I'm largely finished with the Derby and on to finding other strong opinions on the two days. (My top pick is not Danon to be clear).

Good friends run LockStockNPharoah in the Pat Day Mile and we will be together at the Oaks and Derby for the two days. I'm looking at Lock's recent workmate for those willing to do a little work as a horse to key in on early on Derby Day!

Happy Hunting this week folks!



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/25/2026 09:55PM by Fairmount1.