Commandment is a tough horse. He doesn't find a hole, he makes it. He picks up a bully rider in Saez. His trainer and pattern make me hopeful he will be one of the few here that will run a new top and I think a moderate improvement puts him right there. Chief Wallabee has been right on Commandment's heels the entire campaign and I think blinkers will help focus the horse in the stretch and perhaps improve him a point or two. Finally, Further Ado is the fastest in the field, so he could regress and still win. Leave him off tickets at your own peril.

I believe Emerging Market is the most-likely board-hitter, based on his numbers, trainer and rider. However, call it nonsense or call it a matter of spacing but no horse who ran in the Louisiana Derby as their final prep has won the Kentucky Derby since Funny Cide in 2003. The last horse to win both was Grindstone, 30 years ago. I'll use Commandment and Chief Wallabee on top and key Emerging Market in the spots underneath.

I also think everyone is focused on the wrong Japanese horse. Wonder Dean is trained by the same trainer as TO Password from 2024, ridden by the rider of Forever Young from that race and is faster. Wonder Dean's rider just picked up a win today on TO Elvis. Perhaps this is the year. I'll use him along with Golden Tempo, Intrepido and Potente as prices.

I will take a stand against Renegade and So Happy.

Good luck to all!