Oaks Day with 100k in attendance and I ended up in the security line behind none other than BanditBeau. This was a bit interesting as we had recently exchanged person to person messages here all about preparing for his first trip to Gulfstream for Florida Derby. Good to see you and hope you had a BLAST both days.

Saw Sean and his daughter on Oaks Day and Derby Day all the way from Connecticut. Wow, you have lost some pounds!!

The crowds seemed far lighter for both days compared to the last few/several years. Oaks evening especially was empty for Oaks post time compared to years past. However, leaving was a complete and total nightmare on Oaks night b/c everyone left at the exact same time. This is unlike Derby when it is spaced over 3 final races as people filter out (or how it used to be on Oaks Day with a race or two after Oaks). Locals beyond disgusted with the Oaks arrangement from my interactions. I assume it is permanent but wonder if Derby gets moved to prime time at some point?? Completely unfair to live fans (forced to buy two day packages) and staff who don't get home until midnight and have to be back at the Downs by 6 am if working and by 11 if there to watch all the races. A bartender in our area said their best day as bartenders was on Tuesday, when the locals were there. Interesting that the locals treat folks a heckuva lot better than the out-of-town folks with deep pockets for Thurby, Oaks and Derby. I will state the all-inclusive Fri/Sat probably discourages tipping.

All that said, you can't beat seeing the starting gates open live for the Derby, see the horses explode out of the gate with the crowd crescendo-ing to a roar, and watching them go by you in the stands that first time around. 152 times and the race marks time for the people watching while providing an escape for two minutes from everything else in the world.

On the odds front, I think I correctly predicted that the favorite would be over 5-1 and that there could be as many as 6 horses under 10-1. (Checks notes to see none of the other folks nailed that although Aragona had adjusted to the right track after the draw). This was only the 2nd time the favorite did not hit the super since the Points System started. I also predicted at 3 minutes to post we will have a late vet scratch and this was the correct call once it happened. Those are about the only two things I had right on handicapping the Derby. The whole equation to me was if it would be total pace meltdown with closers dominating late or if it would be a moderate tempo dominated by pressers and mid-pack horses. I guessed wrong on the pace zeroing all my wagers on the 7 and/or the 12 hitting the tri and exacta. 4th and 5th after a tough trip and a phenomenal effort into the teeth a pace meltdown pays nothing.

Baeza should have been a refund on the weekend. You won't convince me otherwise. Read an astute gambler who stated the horse caused his own problems. For me, the photo shows the hand holding the horse with the gates open for all. Is the game about protecting the bettors? Or is it about protecting the owners who still want their 3rd place check?

TO Elvis odds change and the p3 of TO Elvis, Rhetorical (fav), Danon Bourbon was approx $143 if I recall. Renegade was $140 while Further Ado was $100. The next price in order was over $300 I believe. I guess whomever hit the TO Elvis win pool also swung hard on that Japanese, Fav, Japanese P3?? Of course you will never know as it may have just been CAW money which the tracks must protect at all cost even more than retail bettors or owners.

Retail Bettors finish last again.

Baffert's record improved in CD graded stakes as a fav in Pay Day Mile. So did Saffie Joseph. Saffie's was a loose on the lead winner in a 5 horse race with 2 Baffert horses that just didn't have it. Saffie lost an inquiry that could have went the other way depending on the stewards. Baffert's record was pretty terrible with all the rest of his 2-day contingent and I swung on some of his non-stakes horses.

One week of security has been in place with two cameras in the stalls for 3 Derby's now. When are the journalists going to start asking the trainers whose horses failed pretty bad in the big race if that is a factor in their charges' efforts??

95 winning Beyer figure for the Derby.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 05/03/2026 02:45PM by Fairmount1.