I don't have the stats right now, but I think one factor has changed and another hasn't.

I believe TAP's operation has shrunk, and that is the primary cause for the decrease in earnings. However, I believe TAP's strategy is still one of win early and retire to breeding early. His focus has been (Much like Baffert) on two-year-olds and three-year-olds. Both have a few really good older horses, but they are the exceptions. Also consider that personal interests may change. TAP and/or BB could be more interested in being breeders than trainers.

Secondly, (The Change) TAP's domain has been young horses early in their career. Three-year-olds in FL & NY in the spring. Two-year-olds in the summer, in the same places as well as the boutique meets of KEE & SAR. It's my opinion that he is less dominant in both areas due in large part to increased competition. Chad Brown has increasingly a more rounded stable of females as well as dirt horses as he expands. Joseph has spread geographically while still a force @ GP. The new generation of trainers has certainly eroded TAP's dominance: Cox, Clement, Mott, and the Gals!

Silver, your argument is persuasive; I just don't see it as so singular or simple. Racing is a changing world, a shrinking world, a more competitive industry.