Great numbers and data looking at the upcoming Whitney and Saratoga Derby compliments of Byk. Some of these SHEETS are a Clinic in what to look for when reading SHEETS.

Nitrogen has a Thoro-Pattern as a 4YO running from July-Sept of Pair-Pair-Top. Out of a sample of 1812 Horses 47% of them run a New Top. I trust you but can this Query be double checked. If Nitrogen runs back to that last number and she also pulls 1 Point in weight she is GONE. Now this isnt going to be that easy because there will be stress involved battling this crew. But Casse has done this before with Tepin. But that was also Turf not Dirt. My angle on the 1,812 starters with that pattern is it is a great Stat to know.

Charlie Appleby is here again. Out of 158 American starters he is 30%. Nearly all those Starters were in Stakes Races, Turf and Routes. However I guess that in the last 40 starts his numbers are way down. He was still consistently hammered at the windows. But now people are not so sold. His runner Pacific Avenue adds Irad and Blinkers. Irad has never ridden for Appleby so what was the story they told to hook him up? Maybe it was his percentages with 3YO's which caused me to squint and blink when I saw it.

Sovereignty is 6th fastest in the Whitney. Antiquarian has a one off number so we will toss him from the group. But so do Nitrogen and Baeza. However in their case it was their last. White Abario may scratch and that leaves us with Magnitude. After that spectacular 9 length win in Feb as a 3YO where he ran a 0 he got 4 months off. Missed the Triple Crown. Came back and got two conditioners under his belt and the rest is history. He is the Best Horse in the World now. At least on Dirt. And his resume backs me up.

Sovereignty got set back by that sickness more than we thought. His last race in 2025 was August. Baeza keep running. Magnitude was just cranking up. These other horses have caught up and passed him. But with two races under his belt like Magnitude maybe that's the foundation he needed. And its not like he ducked anybody in those two races. Junior Alvarado needs to ride like he is the Underdog and not the confident wide favorite. It is truly now or never time. And for the record Bill Mott is 30% Tops in the last 90 days. And that is good because he is going to need every bit of it to win.

Good Luck Everyone