I rarely post here but this is a very interesting race and there are a few things I think need to be pointed out.

I'll give my perspective from a "how will the race be run?" angle starting with Baeza.

First, a couple of rules:

1. I learned a long time ago never to fall in love with a particular horse, like I did with Alysheba. Still my favorite horse of all time, but I lost a lot of money chasing him at short odds.

2. The mile and a furlong favors horses who have speed. So, who would I bet to WIN this race?

Baeza is a horse that to me is a perennial bridesmaid. He's a lousy gate horse and drew the outside post. The last time he ran a neg number it took him 9 months to get back to it... and he still lost. He's a heartbreaker a lot of people fell in love with, and he's nowhere near as good as Alysheba was. Minor placing at best.

Tiztastic. Has no early speed. Improving but not nearly fast enough to contend and he's not going forward after those last 2 races. If the race falls apart - and it might - he can get a check, but a bounce more likely.

Soveriegnty - This horse also has no early speed and has not improved since last year. I also think the horse prefers 1 1/4 miles. More on him later.

White Abbario FREAKED when under the care of Rick Dutrow and the horse has never gotten back to that number. 5 races at Saratoga with 1 freaky win. Talk of him scratching. He's gonna have to FREAK to win this. Not impossible if all the potential bouncers bounce and he shows up, but how often does that happen? Is that worth a bet at odds of less than 8-1? I think not.

Forged Steel - way too slow and might also scratch, leaving a potential 6 horse field with only 2 speed horses running on a speed favoring track.

Antiquarian - that neg 4 knocked him out and he doesn't look like he's ever going to get back to that number, BUT his pattern is a little tighter than most here and if all the potential bouncers bounce and he runs one of his better races, he can get a check. But he's another with some gate issuses and that's never a good horse to bet on TO WIN.

Nitrogen - I'll state up front that I'm not a fan of Casse. I have not had a lot of success betting his horses. But I know a good horseman when I see one.
This is one of the 2 speed horses. Based on recency, she is the fastest horse in the race...and she gets 5 pounds....AND there's a better than 50% chance she's in heat. A wise, old school horseman once told me a long ago that when fillies go into heat and they are the lone speed, the other colts just like to follow her around the track. Not 100% of the time, but way too often to ignore.

So, she's going to bounce? On 8 weeks rest? REALLY???? Look at her pattern. Starts with an 11 at age 2 and gets all the way down to a 2 at age 3 before "bouncing" to a 5 on turf. Gets right back to the 2, moves forward to a 1 and bounces to a 3 after a 3,000 mile ship in November after 11 races without much of a break. Takes a 3 month break, comes right back to her top first out, improves to a 0 next out and pairs that 0 the next time out. Then takes an 8 WEEK LAYOFF and comes back with a NEG 4. Now she's coming back after another 8 week layoff.

Guys, this horse hasn't really ever gone backwards. Casse knows it. So today she's gonna bounce, right? OK. To what, a negative 2? With a 5 pound break, probably loose on the lead (with JV who does well when on loose lead runners) AND likely in heat and the 4th choice on the morning line, she's a VERY ATTRACTIVE SINGLE for me and we should get 7-2.

Magnitude - the other speed and has the rail. He has to send, right?

Lets look at his pattern. He shows big jumps followed by big bounces. 10-5-9. 0-3-8. 1-0- neg3- 0. Comes into this off another neg 3. It took him 4 months to get back to the neg 3 he ran last time. So, is he going to send? Yes? Then Nitrogen stalks him to the turn and we have a nice horse race. But he's NOT going to send. WHY NOT? Because He IS GOING TO BOUNCE, Steve knows it and that's why this horse won't be sent and also why Tiztastic is in the race - to potentially get a check if the big horse runs an off race. Now Magnitude could very well run fast enough to win here, but he's never going to run a neg 3. Maybe a 0 or a neg 1, but that won't win here.

OK, now what happens if I am wrong about Nitrogen, but right about everyone else (which happpens about 90% of the time)? Then the play becomes Sovreignty based solely on recent figs and the potential he could move forward - albeit at short odds. NOT a win bet but a backup in pick 5's and pick 6's.

So, I will single Nitrogen. Might box with Sov and lean heavy on a 2-6 cold EX if I can get a reasonable price. Am I worried my insights will hurt my price? Not in a million years. Nobody ever listens to me...

Safe trips and good luck to all.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/08/2026 10:04AM by MO.