Bias, Pace and Numbers (1726 Views)
Posted by: Anonymous User (IP Logged)
Date: May 05, 2002 01:47PM
By the ninth race it was clear that Churchill was playing to front runners. Last year the track was lightning quick but fair. Everyone always thinks there is gonna be a suicide speed duel in the Derby. It was easy to project War Emblem, Proud Citizen and Medaglia d'Oro on the lead. Pre race I felt with those horses trying to get 10 panels for the first time, a 47 half was not unreasonable. When I saw it go up I really felt my bet was secure. I didn't post it pre race so I won't take credit for it now. But as I laid my bet down, more and more the thought came to me how Proud Citizen was a Charismatic. Look at his PP's. He ran great his first two. Jumped into a graded stakes and had gate problems. Bled in his next graded stakes with gate problems. Was put away for months and ran bang up for six panels in the Santa Anita Derby off the shelf. Then won the Lexington with ease. With the track favoring speed, I tossed him in. My Lexington speed figure had him close. Its funny the first two picked up 12 and 10 pounds respectively. Normally thats way too much for me but I forgave it Saturday. Maybe it was fate...lol.
Oh and Megadlia coming up with a cough and some fluid as well. But I knew that pre race.
CtC
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