Interested to hear folks thoughts about race 7 today at Sar. The Jacobson fav seems beatable and is not fastest, even when factoring in the weight advantage. The second choice on the ML is also vulnerable with that big six point new top in last. The trainer has been on fire the last 90 days, but this is not churchill.
At 12-1 Dawley is looking mighty good. Consistently runs that 2 3/4, which is fast enough to win this. Seems to be a 7F specialist. I've observed more than a number of times horses running the same number over several months all of a sudden break through and run a new top. The most memorable for me being Pleasant Home in the BC Distaff back in 05 for Shug. Was running a 1 all year and then jumps up and beats Ashado and Society Selection. Add in Dawley's stalking running style from an outside post, along with the hoping for double digit odds and I'll take a horse like Dawley eery time.
Googleado, although I don't like the inside post, may set the pace according to the race shape, is also intriguing. Very lightly raced with only a 3 point new top in last, with plenty of time to recover since the top. Who's to say this one does not have another forward move or a pair-up in him? Like Dawley I'm hoping the ML is accurate. Depending on what I see in the paddock I'll play Dawley to win with a saver place wager, and an exacta box with Googleado. And maybe the latter to win also if the price is anything over the ML.
Best of luck to all today and this weekend.
Phil