you presented wonderful analysis in the 2012 seminar about Baffert's horses coming in off new tops and then also his on 3 weeks rest.

As we can see from the seminar archive, he has a great overall record of tops and pairs in Derby (relative to the average) but his record on 3 weeks rest and off new tops is atrocious

You had Bode fitting the pattern and bouncing hard in the Derby while still able to run 2nd with the ground saving trip.

Here's the question, in retrospect, after seeing how well he ran in the Preakness (new top only 2 weeks later), do you have any questions about the figure you gave him in the Derby?

My guess is that you will use the excellent 2012 seminar data and add Bode to that list to make a case against AP and that would be a fascinating and controversial stance (it's certainly thought provoking for me right now).

That said, given the pace he set in the Derby while still holding on for 2nd and the fact that he came back only 2 weeks later to run another monster race, it's hard to see his Derby as a bounce.

seems like based on the TG figs for the 2nd and 3rd choices this year and the seminar data from 2012 applied to the top choice on the ML this year, you can and will make a very compelling case to throw out the top 3 choices on the morning line this year. Cool stuff

thoughts?