I bought and thoughly analyzed the Thorograph sheets for the Derby and I noticed that War Emblems last 2 races on Thorograph were both rated a "1" (which was impressive) but before that his last race was an "8" or a "10" or something and I thought that for sure War Emblem would be challenged for the lead and bounce with a 3 or 4.

I was at a Derby Party in Las Vegas and you could hear a pin drop when War Emblem crossed the line.

I thought that WE might run well and I handicapped him as a top performer but based on Proud Citizen's number I did not see that he could be in the top 5.

I had Perfect Drift on a Show ticket for a modest win but my other bets were losers.

I think your numbers for War Emblem were right on - I just thought he would bounce, and I thought that he would have company on the lead.

How can you tell if a horse is going to bounce or not?