Has to be a thread on the most interesting handicap race of the summer, no? :)

My question is mostly for Mr. Jerry or any other TG Sheets gurus (you know who you are) regarding the Thoro-Pattern:

Curious if you'd rather take the TG Pattern % at face value and bet Dortmund ~7/2 at equal weight as Chrome knowing Dortmund was probably cranked last out yet still lost even giving weight while also getting an inside trip but is still 17% to run a new top off his -1ish efforts, or take the less-fast 3yo Dalmore who gets weight from the entire field in addition to also being 25% to run a new top plus at a big 15-1+ price to boot?

In other words and long story short, What's the most important variable in the betting equation when factoring in TG Pattern %s? Prior figs, odds, today's weight, etc or combo of them all?

Fwiw, based on figs and history, I think Chrome will win today and Beholder will run gallantly chasing in defeat, but at perhaps a major cost to her form going forward. Still matters not as she remains (I think) the fastest 2yo of either sex on TG with that -2 back before her BC Juv Fillies. She's for sure an HoF animal and Chrome is likewise knocking on that door if he hasn't already RSVP'ed.