Belmont race 3 potential value (1041 Views)
Posted by:
dodie (IP Logged)
Date: October 28, 2016 08:02AM
I'm liking #3 Charlotte's Star at 8/1 ML. The Clement filly gets a riding change to the hot riding Javier Castellano in a race that should have enough speed to set up her late kick. On the shelf since May, She needs to improve 2 and a half points to be competitive. Her $700K price tag, horrible posts in the last 2 races, stretchout breeding, and even running style bodes well in this 1 1/8 contest.
Her main competition is the Dilger trained Tilbury, who had it all her own way in her last close to the lead in an extremely show paced race for par according to BRISNET. Although I don't usually go overboard on 3yo fillies to bounce, I'm willing to lean that way on the pair up and 2/1 ML.
Tapit Together is ouchy, and this is first time she's put two races together since January. Competitive numbers, but she likes to get into trouble, and even a repeat of her last might only get her a minor share.
The two I will use with Charlotte are Shug's Church Social and Albitrani's Candy Genovesa from the rail. Church social is also putting her first back to back races together since May, but her most recent was a slight forward move and I like her to complete the exacta. The Value exacta/tri horse is Candy. Relatively heavily raced, her recent race off of a 143 day layoff is a lifetime top and she could move forward at 12/1.
I'll bet Charlotte's Star at 5/1 fair value and use Church Social and Candy Genovesa in the exactas.
Belmont race 3 potential value (1041 Views) |
dodie |
10/28/2016 08:02AM |
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