Pure Sensation 33/1

Short version: number power - as fast if not faster than any, spacing - not over-raced this year, trainer intent, price

Long version - Unlike a few other American runners who have come over to this through out the years, Pure Sensation comes not at the end of a long, arduous campaign and he comes in career form. One of the advantages of having the Meydan sheets is being able to get an idea what it takes to win these HK races too. For instance Peniaphobia won this last year with a 0, a fig Pure Sensation has run 3 of his last 4 times out. He is at least as fast as any other if not the outright fastest runner in the entire field. And he's 33/1 in the ante post plus his coming in not over raced.

The downsides of course are no Lasix and the right handed turn. But Clement is no idiot and surely wouldn't send a runner over who bleeds so I think we can safely infer trainer intent from this ship and indeed you could even speculate just looking at his bare sheet that he has been pointed/building to this the entire year. The 6 furlongs will be far more to his liking than the downhill 6.5f he just experienced at Santa Anita too.

The right handed going is a worry. In his work two days ago some local types claimed he did not corner well but Mike Vese from the drf who is over there seemed to have a a more positive take saying he improved the last few days with a fast, "in hand and wanting to do more" workout two days ago. He noted he did switch leads late but again, he has been getting better and Clement was really smart - he shipped him here as early as he could have - he was the 2nd international horse who arrived, getting in last Tuesday the 29th. So he'll have been here almost a full two weeks for aclimatization. Again, I think Clement really thinks this guy can win this and it was not a last minute decision - unlike Mongolian Saturday who clearly was a last minute decision after his victory in the BC last year (and who ran like it).

The other big worry tho is the draw. It's a short run to the turn and there is a fair bit of speed in here to go with Pure Sensation so you wouldn't want him to draw outside as he very likely would not be be able to get over in time to avoid massive ground loss. Clement who is ground concious is certainly aware of this just tweeting the following about the draw coming up later tonight:

https://twitter.com/clementstable/status/806614015543824384


In a way, he feels a bit like Tourist in the Mile. If he can draw well, his chances are miles better than his current odds. A real overlay. And that's just in the UK ante post. American horses get no respect at all in the local pools so it's entirely possible that on the day in the HK win/eachway pool that he could be even higher than 33's.

As for the competition, Ryan Moore is on the fave, Big Arthur, so that doesn't help, but apparently he (Big Arthur) has a history of melting in the paddock at times so that's a positive given how many people will be at Sha Tin on Saturday night.

Regardless of the potential pitfalls, on number power and the trainer's campaign/early ship, at the very least 33:1, an excellent wager.


Also not hating Cougar Mountain for O'Brien in the Mile. He ran a sneaky good, ground concealed BC Mile with a 1.25. O'Brien knows how to ship and win here (Highland Reel last year) and his current year success goes without saying. Cougar Mountain is 40/1 and while Moore is not on him and he is very much as the end of along year, the competition in this year's Mile is very weak. Able Friend is not in the form he once was (tho he did have a great looking gallop just today) and his trainer has explicitly said he (Able Friend) is coming in a race short. No one in the race is less than 5/1 and Maurice, the Japanese super horse who won this last year has passed on this to run in the HK Cup. I think Cougar Mountain has a real shot here and like Pure Sensation, he could easily float to some insane price (maybe even triple digits) on the day in the HK pools - which given his last number (and even his lasix-less 2.50 two back) makes him solid value. There's no worry on the draw here, unlike in the Sprint, as it's a run along the entire backstretch, so post far less important for him. Long campaign and coming off a top are a worry but...at the price, happy to take the shot.