[b]Overview[/b]
This is a MSW race for 4 y/o & up F&M's @ 1M. I consider it a race worthy of attention because it is a) part of the DD b) early in the card (which means we still have chips) and an integral part of two pic 3's and you can't win the early pic 4 without figuring out this race. While the #4 seems to be the one in form and knocking on the door and c/b a single. Considerations:

[b]1. Elizabeth's Vow[/b]
This one is clearly improving but her running style of slow early fast late make her doubtful in the win position while a must use in verticals. 10/1 m/l seduces.

[b]2 Mizz Tutu[/b]
This one began her career on the turf @ SAR then switched to dirt @ CD before taking a year off. I watched replays of her previous races and she started poorly in each yet did some good running in the middle of each race. If she has been trained to get started the trainer Romans hasn't given up on her yet and this soft spot could be just what she is looking for. Surely she is faster than her 2 y/o #'s if healthy.

[b]3 Harper's Smile[/b]
The m/l favorite, and looking like either a good one or a terrible one. Trained by TAP and ridden by JC looks to be 1/2 the 5/1 price she was sent off in her first effort. The dilemma is she didn't run a lick here in mid Dec. Work tab doesn't impress so I have to take this one on the strength of the connections and their $200K investment in a filly bred to sprint? If she does have hereto unseen ability well then I get beat. Entering and then scraching her out of a recent claiming race on the turf further confuses.

[b]4 Vanishing Lady[/b]
This one very nearly won her last in the slop. The previous trainer had pointed her at Turf races yet twice she finished 2nd in off the turf heats. So the new trainer's move to a dirt race would seem to make sense. She doesn't have the symmetry I have come to expect in successful turf horses. I think this is the one to beat.

[b]5 Eva London[/b]
The problem I have here is that this filly is another that hasn't raced in a year. Complicated by the fact that she has early speed and has been working like a racehorse in the morning. I'm pretty sure this one will be either making or forcing the pace. In her last race she finished poorly so she is either cut out for shorter distances or she had a condition which may have been rectified by now, Worrisome. @ m/l 7/2 would prefer twice that.

[b]6 Broken Meadow[/b]
This mare showed promise a couple of years ago then after a protracted layoff came back late last year in a lackluster fashion. Yet she is still being entered in MSW company. Connections either know something we don't or vice versa. I'm suspicious that both this one and the #5 above have bleeding problems after watching their video replays they are just dull in the stretch.

[b]7 Tapicera[/b]
This mares first couple of races were just dreadful. They were both on the turf and while connections appear to be burning $$ starting with the breeder and subsequent purchaser. This trainer is tricky and has a positive ROI changing up surfaces.

[b]Summary[/b]
Like FrankD has said repeatedly most Maiden races are just crap shoots and anything can and does happen. This one looks like one. Several of todays contenders could jump up due to either being lightly raced or a big gap in the training tab. Of those #2 Mizz Tutu will offer the best price so I'll use her with the #4 both in the horizontals and verticals.

If anyone has any insight or strong opinions re: value in this race, I'd like to know what they are since we have hours before post time.