Mall,

I think the sub-6 (using TG) angle is very useful for future book wagering. Not nearly so for the Derby itself. If a horse runs a sub-6 fig as a 2yo, I would hesitate to play it in the future book. It is likely to be one of the favorites and the history of such horses is not very encouraging. My Derby model only implicitly factors this in. The model is not "black and white" and does not have any hard and fast rules but it weights various factors and rolls them all up into an overall odds line.

There have been some horses (probably a longer list than the one below) that ran sub-6 TG figs as a 2yo but never made it to the Derby (e.g., Macho Uno, Siphonic, Repent, Officer). Unfortunately, I don't have that complete list.

I do have a list such horses that did actually make it into the Derby over the last 8 years: Afternoon Delights (5.25 as 2yo), Favorite Trick (5.75), Excellent Meeting (5), High Yield (5), More Than Ready (4.25), Captain Steve (3.75), AP Valentine (5.5), Songandaprayer (6), Express Tour (5) Point Given (3.5) and of course, Came Home (4), Harlan’s Holiday (2.5) and Request For Parole (3.5).

As you suspected, certainly not enough data to make a strong case but enough to make you wonder. Some of these horses may have had other strong factors (pace and breeding) to explain their poor performances. However, it is a fact that no horse has yet run a sub-6 fig as a 2yo and managed to hit the board in the Derby. The trend in recent years has been toward more of these fast 2yos but such horses have yet to make an impact on the first Saturday in May.

Regarding War Emblem, I had a negative read on his condition and put his chances of running within 2 pts of his top at only about 1 out of 3. However, he was the fastest horse in the race if you factored in likely ground loss based on running style and post and he fared pretty well on all the other modifying factors except for his front-running style which was viewed negatively by the model because of the typically hot Derby pace. Taking all that into account (the good and the bad – no hard and fast rules) he rated out as one of the main contenders and a good value play at the odds. If you take out the anti-front-runner bias, he rates out much higher.

I hope answers your questions.

Thanks

Chris