Watching the Black Eyed Susan, despite the expected dry/fast track conditions tomorrow, I wondered if the Preakness could favor closers as well. Rosario brought the winner in with a move that gave me a flashback of Hence's win in the Sunland Derby. I keep going back to Hence.

Because you're supposed to have reasons beyond the fact that he beat some good horses in that race, I love the breeding: Street Boss for speed with APIndy on the bottom. I also saw that Kerry Thomas liked him, and I think he's ready to move forward and show some real talent. I'm not depending on him to run big so much as I am prepared for him to run big. I have him on top on some tickets.

I suppose it's more about what I saw than what I read (and I have looked at a LOT of stuff in the last few weeks). When he made his move in New Mexico, it looked like that pushbutton speed that I remember seeing from Afleet Alex. He would need to move forward, of course, but look how much Conquest Mo Money moved forward from Sunland to Arkansas. Obviously, I'm drawing a line through the Derby for Hence.

I'm seeing a lot hype on CC. I'm going to have to let him beat me because the Aqueduct races haven't been producing monsters. I think LAL will show up late (dream trip in the Derby or not) and Multiplier has my attention despite the lowly status of the Illinois Derby.

My biggest questions surround the pace – which I think will be a little faster than most people expect, and this could do some damage to AD--especially if the track is not too fast. Assuming that the Derby took just a little out of him, my guess is that he will be drawn into an early duel by CMM and perhaps one or two others, then get caught late by a stalker/closer or even two of them. Who? There are only three or four possible candidates so take your pick. Maybe CE and maybe Gunny, but I can't get excited about either of those.


Leamas