Friday Belmont Analysis (1172 Views)
Posted by:
Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: June 24, 2017 08:08AM
On Friday afternoon it was nice to get back to manageable field sizes and data generally predictive of how horses will run relative to each other.
The key Friday was horses coming back from layoffs.
In the 3rd race, a short field of four betting interests the 5/1 winner [b]A Fleet Attitude[/b] was a welcome returnee from some 8 mos of R&R. Ideally the scratch of [b]Proper Freud[/b] left some players to hammer the winning TG Key. An uplifting race to preserve some chips for better things yet to come.
The 7th race, while probably assuming too much, I really respect TG recomendations and what I regard as perspective in this race. a) The inclusion [b]Chubby Master[/b] (at a m/l I don't remember) was key. That 25/1 2nd place finisher also had a recent 8 mos hiatus. b) while Tg usually suggests 3 horse ebxs, in this instance they spread to four. c) TG's key [b]Hard Hitter[/b] looked good for a long time only to fall out of the trifecta late. The $232 exacta should, however, make the day a profitable one.
The questionable race for me was the 8th. TG left 15/1 #9 [b]Lord of Love[/b] out of their recomendations. Another (old one?) coming back after being away from competition for some 200+ days. ? I backed and used the Hertler trainee because of his stats (not TG) on returning from l/o's. Yet the TG stats of away >90 do not encourage. I'm curious am I mis-remembering or did DRF have conflicting historical stats?
Finish the card with a solid 8/1 winner when flush with chips and we have a nice day. Thank you very much!
I see NBCSP is airing Ascot @ 8:30 a.m. Good Luck
EDIT - OK I fiound the data which influenced me
Twinspires free pp's via Brisnet
90+ days away 29 14% 24% [b]+4.00[/b]
So the horse ran as I hoped and I still didn't cash. Used a rifle should have used a shotgun.
Friday Belmont Analysis (1172 Views) |
Tavasco |
06/24/2017 08:08AM |
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