Been looking at some previous Breeders Cup Thoro-Graph figs. Was wondering if anyone has found it useful/profitable to use the "historical profiles" as a baseline for contenders.

For example, looking at the last 7 editions of the BC Juvenile, there are some common themes to the winners: one, there must be a paired number or an improvement in figs from first lifetime start to second start. Two, last fig in the prep must be as good as, slightly better or substantially better than first lifetime start (no regression). Third, final prep fig should be 6 1/2 or lower. Fourth (and this relates to the 1st point above), any gain of 5+ points from first lifetime start to second start will likely result in a regression in one or both of the next two starts (examples, Classic Empire went from 15.2 in his first start to 2.2 and his next was a regression to 3.2. And, Nyquist went from a 7.3 to 2.3 and regressed in both of his next two starts).

The 4th point may not be so good. Not This Time ran a game second to Classic Empire losing by a close neck. Not This Time's TG figs before the BC Juvenile were 14, 6.3, and 3. Therefore, he had a 7.1 increase from first start to second start and didn't regress in the last prep nor in the BC Juvenile, which he was given a 0 TG fig.

Do any of you think this is a useful way of getting to a list of contenders or does it have no value/dangerous???