Quick Quiz Question before I comment on this year's Early Stab and before you scroll down to see the answer. Who ended up the 2nd choice in last year's Kentucky Derby in the win pool? And with that, here are a few comments and my Early Stab for this year.

This is a very, very tough task again this year. This year I've looked at DRF PP's, Bris PP's, past years data back to 2000, this year's Pool 4 odds, and the latest odds at William Hill. And still the confidence isn't great. I waited until the Smith decision although a prior post last week should have clued you in to my likely favorite with Smith's choice. Other decisions are likely different than most would guess. To be clear, as I say every year, this is my attempt at guessing what the actual off odds are when the gates open (or another 24 seconds in when the final money is processed into the pools!!)

Last year, a trend that had lasted a long time disappeared as 4 horses went off over 60-1 (first time dating back through 2000 at least that has happened) and 6 horses went off under 10-1 (3rd time dating back through 2000, not counting 2000 when there was a "field" type entry). All that being said, this is how I see it. (Pre-emptive defense of No. 2=undefeated, trainer who gets bet in big spots as discussed on board past 10 months, and 2 triple figure Beyer figures that will stick out over the field on paper).

Thanks to Mathcapper who has taught me the effect of breakage and that the morning line points should actually add to 123 based on his calculations. I have used that number to a T for the attempt this year.

All that said, tear it to shreds as I say every year. Last year's further below with actual outcome in bold to the right.

1. Omaha Beach, 3.90-1.
2. Maximum Security, 5.60-1
3. Game Winner, 5.80-1
4. Tacitus, 7.60-1
5. Roadster, 9.00-1
6. Improbable, 11.50-1
7. Vekoma, 15.60-1
8. Code of Honor, 19.40-1
9. Win Win Win, 22.80-1
10. By My Standards, 24.00-1
11. Tax, 26.00-1
12. War of Will, 27.50-1
13. Spinoff, 29.00-1
14. Cutting Humor, 36.00-1
15. Long Range Toddy, 39.00-1
16. Country House, 42.40-1
17. Haikal, 46.60-1
18. Plus Que Parfait, 59.60-1
19. Master Fencer, 63.50-1
20. Grey Magician, 82.30-1

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Last year's Early Stab on 4/17

My Attempt by Rank, Horse, My Off Odds Guess. In Bold, Actual Rank and Actual Off Odds to the Right.

1. Justify, 2.90-1. [b]1st choice, 2.90-1.
[/b]2. Mendohlssen, 5.60-1. [b]3rd choice, 6.80-1.
[/b]3. Audible, 6.10-1. [b]4th choice, 7.00-1[/b]
4. Good Magic, 11.50-1. [b]6th choice, 9.70-1.
[/b]5. Bolt D'Oro, 12.80-1. [b]5th choice 8.90-1.
[/b]6. Vino Rossi, 14.60-1. [b]8th choice, 14.10-1.
[/b]7. Magnum Moon, 17.50-1. [b]7th choice, 13.70-1.[/b]
8. Hofburg, 18.20-1. [b]10th choice, 27.00-1.
[/b][color=#FF0000]9. My Boy Jack, 22.80-1. [b]2nd choice, 6.70-1.[/b]
[/color]10. Enticed, 26.00-1. [b]14th choice, 50.30-1.[/b]
11. Gronkowski, 27.00-1. [b]DID NOT START.
[/b]12. Noble Indy, 28.60-1. [b]15th choice, 59.20-1.[/b]
13. Quip, 29.30-1. [b]DID NOT START.
[/b]14. Solomini, 32.30-1. [b]17th choice, 62.90-1.
[/b]15. Promises Fulfilled, 36.00-1. [b]13th choice, 49.00-1.
[/b]16. Flameaway, 37.10-1. [b]11th choice, 37.50-1.
[/b]17. Bravazo, 43.40-1. [b]18th choice, 66.90-1.[/b]
18. Free Drop Billy, 46.60-1. [b]12th choice, 45.40-1.
[/b]19. Firenze Fire, 54.50-1. [b]16th choice, 59.70-1.
[/b]20. Lone Sailor, 57.80-1. [b]9th choice, 24.50-1.[/b]