Re: Ok Experts its almost time........ (941 Views)
Posted by:
Dave Loatman (IP Logged)
Date: May 14, 2002 03:00PM
Long time lurker, first time poster with a few thoughts...
1. There's a stats guru out there, I think his name is Ed Bain, who has compiled an impressive amount of data detailing the gate problems of one Jerry Bailey. Sort of ironic, eh ? Frankel was upset with the early race problems encountered by M d'O, and so he responds by replacing Pincay with a guy who has trouble getting horses out.
2. Given the small sample, this may be anecdotal and meaningless, but, in the ten years or so I've followed this game, the horses who won the Derby in the most dominant fashion have not come back to win the Preakness. In my younger and dumber days (now I'm just older, fatter and somewhat less dumb), I remember watching Unbridled piss all over the field in the 1990 Derby, and the ease with which he won left me convinced that he would win the Preakness. In more recent years, Monarchos, FuPeg, and Thunder Gulch were all authoritative winners in Louisville before failing in Balty; Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Charismatic cut it closer in their wins, but repeated two weeks later. My own guess is that the dominant efforts, despite appearing to be less taxing on the winners, actually took a lot of the starch out of them.
3. As a public service, I will post my Preakness selections later this week. This is so that you can bet against those picks with both hands. I've had my share of success with the Derby and Belmont, but for some reason the Preakness has proven to be an unsolvable mystery for me; me only win in the race came in 1991, when I attended the race in person.