FWIW my observations cause I'm excited.

Preface
I understand that there is a 15% chance of rain with light winds early in the day with wind in the range of 2 mph. But, the chances of rain increase as the day wears on and the races become more interesting. i.e. about even money that it will rain around 6:00 p.m.

Race #1
$150K (for NYB less for others) NW1 OC/50K 1+1/8 for fillies & mares. Seven are slated to start. One view w/b that this heat is very competitive. What I find curious is that only three of the four are NY bred and eligible for the added $'s. OK $110K is a nice purse for a $50K claimer. Only two are in with a tag #3 Toned Up and #4 Honey Money, Given that they are all comparable on their best day I'm distracted by which trainer looks to be the cleverest here. All of them have reasons to be liked here. But where is the value?

In last year's meet of the 35 9F dirt races 49% were won by E Style runners i.e. the pacemaker in most cases. Who are the candidates for that role? Without a confirmed need to lead type, I am left to decide between # 4 Honey Money or #5 Bustin Bay who will probably go off the favorite of the crowd at something near her m/l of 5/2. As much as I respect trainer Linda Rice that price doesn't qualify as value vs this field.

#1 Virtual Reality (The Chadster)
I am impressed with her first and only race. She finished that one off like one of Chad's turf monsters. She gets Franco again and probably will get a better position given a slower pace today. Again 3/1 is probably deserved but not much value.

#2 Mia Bea Star (The infamous Randi Persaud)
Trainer Persaud has been a bit under the radar of late but its hard to forget some of his most unexpected winners. Her terrific win two weeks ago IMHO was more a function of the pace in that race allowing her to get up in the last jump. One could argue she will be even more competitive at 9F or she might regress. In any event at a m/l 10:1 and a 5 lb apprentice allowance. She arguably has value!

#3 Toned Up (Michael Dubb et All & Rob Atras)
I view these connections more as businessmen in the business of horse racing than as sportsmen. Just my perspective. This gal ran some good races earlier this year and then got claimed away from trainer Tim Hills and eventually to her current barn. As a late closer it figures she is not gonna win at a mile. But, her running style is less of a detriment at 9F. The 5/1 morning line might drift up but the 25% strike rate after claims will still stand out. Could be value if overlooked by the crowd otherwise not for me.

#4 Honey Money (Tr. Wayne Potts & a 5lb bug boy)
I like almost everything about this entry except she fades late in too many 7F & 1M races. Last out in a four-horse field she hooked two speedsters. Her inability to keep up with those two distorts the speed figure she got that day. She was gonna be third no matter how she finished up. With a morning line of 10/1 she is another with value Imo. Her previous trainers have been running her in middle-distance races if it's just a matter of not having enough early speed to win those she could lead a long way at a 9F pace. Potts has got plenty of game.

#5 Bustin Bay (the favorite)
There isn't enough early pace to take this one out of her game and her game has never been better. A definite use in both vertical and horizontal bets.

#6 Sabra Tuff (THE Dallas Stewart)
Does opening Day of the 2023 Saratoga Meet qualify as a big race day? I think it does and we known the history of Tr, Stewart is to put a pricey horse over on big racing days. But at m/l 3/1 he is not under the radar here. In fact, he's kind of in the spotlight because Sabra Tuff is a class-conscious player special.
I won't be shocked if this one jumps up but I won't be betting on it. Pass

#7 Ocean Gateway (Honest Guy C. Clement)
I don't have a clue what happened to this filly at Pimlico so I'll draw a line through that race and disregard it. She fits these conditions and her price is likely to stay around 6/1 so she's a use for me.

Bottom Line
I'm left with two value horses and four others that are likely to run well.

I guess I'll just use the #2 & #4 in the bottom slot of the Super while leaving out #6 from the top tiers.

I'll also try a 1/4 ebx.

Good Luck