Below are the computer model's "break even" odds for the Preakness. This run of the model assumed a hot pace. Of course, I used a similar assumption in the Derby and it backfired but it looks like that assumption might be a little safer in the Preakness. For those of you that are interested, a similar computer run which did not assume a hot pace moves up the front runners and makes War Emblem the most likely winner with U S S Tinosa not too far behind.

If the hot-pace assumption is valid and that the morning line is accurate, the clear value play appears to be U S S Tinosa. It looks like you have to include War Emblem in the exotics and that the other three favorites (Proud Citizen, Harlan's Holiday, and Medaglia D'Oro) all look about equal and your exotic play would have to be based on the odds with D'Oro the least value of the three. Table Limit, Magic Weisner and Straight Gin look like live longshots that offer some value and could possibly fill-out the tris and supers. The rest appear to have very little chance to win or even hit the board.

I plan to post some more subjective comments a little later.

Good luck to all.

Chris

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U S S Tinosa, 3.5
Magic Weisner, 19.6
Straight Gin, 18.5
Crimson Hero, >100/1
Medaglia D'Oro, 7.7
Harlan's Holiday, 7.5
Easyfromthegitgo, >100/1
War Emblem, 3.7
Table Limit, 17.2
Booklet, >100/1
Menacing Dennis, >100/1
Proud Citizen, 6.4
Equality, >100/1