Tabitha,

I don't understand what you stated or what you are asking or implying in your last statement.

The "break even" odds ARE the "odds representation" of the model's estimate of the probability of each horse winning. There is subjectivity involoved in the model input (i.e., some of the input reflects my opinion) but the primary inputs are TG figures.

I am not sure what past postings you are talking about so you will have to be more specific.

If I play a horse in the Peter Pan it will be the one that offers the best value even it if is not the most likely winner (i.e., not Sunday Break). To do anything else would be folly and would ensure a less than optimal ROI in the long term. This is the primary tenant of all the "value" handicapping literature out there.

So, if I am tracking with what you are asking/stating, the answer is "Yes, I would definitely play Deputy Dash at 12-1 if the other 3 main contenders were below their morning line." If the model, is accurate (admittedly a big if and I am not claiming that it necessarily is), I would have about a 22 pct chance of cashing a win bet (and a 78 pct chance of losing) but, even so, I will end up way ahead in the long term making such wagers.

I hope that response made some sense.

Thanks

Chris