Thanks to Alydar for rescuing my post on the Rag. board and putting it up here. I stand by every letter in that post and by my characterization of it here.

As I said when I first posted here, I did not expect to change anyone's mind but I did hope to engage Jerry on some of his assumptions and have thus far been disappointed. I have heard no response on my question regarding the turf course last Saturday and what basis -- other than his own beliefs -- does he have for changing the variant a full 6 points based on 2-3 hours of evaporation on a cool and cloudy day.

As for dirt variants, I have never claimed that it can't change during the day. In fact, Ragozin does make adjustments for changes in weather, moisture, etc. and they admit it. But you only do it where you have evidence of some intervening act that could have a meaningful impact on the variant and a wealth of historical information on what the effect is. And since we're talking physics and chemistry here, the effects of moisture, etc. are demonstrable and consistent. I would wager that Jerry bumps his variants up and down even with the same changes prevailing depending on whether he thinks the horses should have run faster or slower than they did.

One other misstatement by Brown where he says that 'groups of horses' don't do strange things. Who flunked statistics here? Groups do strange things all of the time. It's just a matter of probability. If 6 horses are each 80% to bounce, then they will all bounce about 25% of the time. When there are approximately 100-200 races being run every day in this country, and over 30,000 per year, you will see a lot of strange results.

And please, HP, stop this nonsense of attacking me for the acts of others. It's a cheap and old trick.

See everyone on the 6th.