Re: In Case You Missed It (964 Views)
Posted by:
David G. Patent (IP Logged)
Date: May 25, 2002 04:51PM
Jerry,
1) There is a difference between running 6 points off a lifetime top and bouncing 6 points in a race. If you take each horse individually in that 11th race, you'll see your mistake. And again, stake, shmake. The only young, potentially developing horses in the race were Tenpins and Bowman's Band and both were coming off of big big efforts.
Tenpins -- Off of his 9 point new top 1- a 6 point bounce is entirely possible if not likely, don't you agree?
Lightning Paces -- His prior race was already 6.25 points off of his top, which was an ugly number -- heavily raced 5 y.o. who had been laid up after that 4" was a huge x candidate. 90%+.
Tactial Side -- Another 5 y.o. who had just run .25 off of a top that was 5 points better than any other race he had run. Two 4s and a bunch of 9s or worse. This horse was also 90%+ to run a 9 or worse in the race.
Bowman's Band -- See my previous comment.
Ground Storm -- A 6 y.o. who was now two races removed from a 1, which we know is a knockout blow for most horses (save Cigar, Alysheba, Skip Away, etc.). When this horse ran a 3 at 4 it killed him. When he ran a 2 at 5 it knocked him out for the rest of the year. You're surprised now that a 1 will set him back in a big way?
Grundlefoot -- Another older horse coming off a layoff. His average race in 2001 was 5.5 points off of his top. He had to be at least 65:35 to run no better than 6 points off of his top.
First Amendment -- Yet another heavily raced horse with a very ugly line. His average race this year was 4 points off his top and he had just come off a major effort (2 points off his top). Probably 80:20 to run 6 points off his top.
So please stop throwing up the term 'Stake Horse, Stake Horse!! This is my whole problem with your arguments and the people on this site. Evaluate the specific evidence and give a basis for conclusions.
2) So I guess the answer to my question whether you have any evidence from past experience that a turf course can firm up 6 points in a couple of hours -- and it was in the 60s Jerry with a lot of clouds -- is 'No'. Again, you predetermined the number, so how can anyone argue with you?
3) I'd love to see the 13th race posted. Anyone who wants to buy that race for $10 can do it. I don't work for Ragozin and have no idea why it hasn't been posted.
To HP -- You need to relax a bit about all this. In case you haven't noticed, my 'redundant' post that was on the Rag. board is now on this board for the world to see and respond to if they want. My reference to Friedman was in answer to Tiznow's question about whether he would respond to Jerry's 'Maryland, My Maryland' post here. I was right, wasn't I?
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