To add one point to the ongoing faux dialogue: neither Ragozin nor I have any way of measuring how fast a track is, or whether it is changing speed, other than by how fast the horses run over it--there are no machines for this. This means that tieing one race to another is not based on science (or math) at all--it is purely an assumption, and exactly as accurate as an assumption the track MUST change speed as the weather drops, the wind blows, or anything else happens. Any claims that that assumption is anything more than that is pure, self-serving bunk.

Also, keep in mind how small the changes are that we are talking about. The 4 points that the grass course got faster on Preakness day represents about a 1% difference in the final time of the races, over a course that was soaked before racing, and then exposed over the course of the 3 hours between grass races to wind, sun for some of the time, and gravity--water sinks down. Think about it.



TGJB