Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  The Hockessin Stakes Delaware Park, Race 6, July 13, 2019 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
Email notification when your horse races
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Historical races and handicapping articles
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
AB's ROTW dope is spot on. (1327 Views)
Posted by: Mall (IP Logged)
Date: March 03, 2002 11:59AM

Kudos,AB, on a very good analysis of some very good horses in a very good race which, depending on the odds, may be playable at a 1-3 unit level above an "action" bet.

If GH in fact goes off at 4-1, which tranlates to a 20% chance to win, he will be a solid overlay if you agree his actual chances are approx. 35-40%. AB's concern re re the FG strip is well founded, but note that GH has run well at 7 different venues & 3 of his 4 "bad" races were at GP. At 4-1, you don't need much to toss the Donn, & the 2/25 work, the better post with the main speed to the outside, the more favorable pace scenario, & GH's running style, which does well at FG, should be enough. It also seems from GH's line that Pletcher knows when he needs rest, & the fact that he is bringing GH back on 3 weeks can be viewed as a plus.

AB & I can agree to disagree re KAN, but in the circumstances of this race it doesn't matter if KAN's a contender at 7-2 vs 19-1 last time around. Horses with KAN's style have a .57 impact value for the 197 routes run so far at FG, & as much as I like GH, I would rather book 7-2 win bets on KAN.

If you're willing to go to 3-1 on GH & think KAN shld be 5-1, the one way E needs to pay $46 or more, unlikely unless the Cajuns & simul players pound Valhol, & even then KAN cld easily run 3rd or, as AB aptly pts out, bounce. Frantz & Co are offering a $1 Sfc on the race, which raises the possibility of keying GH over 5 for $60 in addition to the win bet, assuming one can negotiate the suprisingly difficult task of eliminating 3 as unlikely to run as high as 4th.

Finally, weather may have an impact, as it rained all day Fri & was raining again by the last on Sat. The forcast is for the kind of cool fall-like weather GH seems to like, with wind gusts up to 30 mph with a 20% chance of precip., which might be worth monitoring thru the day if this is a "prime" bet for you.

Subject Written By Posted
AB's ROTW dope is spot on. (1327 Views) Mall 03/03/2002 11:59AM

Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.