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Re: David, David, David. (1073 Views)
Posted by: mandown (IP Logged)
Date: May 30, 2002 02:46AM
David,
'Imprecise with your language??!!' - you just gotta be a politician.
And is there that much difference between a 'probalistic range of outcomes' - another magnificent fence-sitting phrase that would do a politician proud - and a viewpoint? Are you saying Jerry has only one view? If so you haven't read his posts. The whole point of his approach is that he 'fits' a race to reflect the 'probalistic range of outcomes.'
Does Ragozin do any different? He says the track was drying out on Preakness Day and so they adjusted the variant. Was there 'measurable data' for that (scientific analysis of a track sample?) and a rigid formula based on the measured moisture content - or was it a viewpoint based on the times recorded and the horses that recorded them? And whatever vague terms - 'a light use in exotics' etc - Friedman might use in previewing a race as far as I'm aware
they only put one figure into their database after the race, not a 'probalistic range of outcomes.' In other words they form a viewpoint just the same as Jerry does.
And what's the difference between a viewpoint that sprint and route variants should be split and one that says they shouldn't? Forget the dogma. Logic says there's an argument for both. Which you subscribe to reflects only your opinion.
In your reply to Jerry you refer to how you used a 'probalistic range of outcomes' based on your interpretation of the Sheets for Preakness Day Race 11. You formed the viewpoint(?) that Bowman's Band would bounce 2-5 points. Doubtless the fact that you were wrong - according to the Sheets he bounced 6 you say - in your mind proves Jerry is also wrong.
Now how about this for a thought? By your own admissions (in the HP challenge string) you don't get much time for handicapping these days. Possibly it was operator error? Jerry makes figures seven days a week, 52 weeks a year and has done so for the past 20 years. To equate your judgment with his would not, I suggest, encompass a logical 'probalistic range of outcomes.'
Horses aren't machines and tracks aren't uniform. Figure-making is subjective. That's the whole point. To quote an old saw, it's the difference of opinion that makes horse-racing.
You may not subscribe to Jerry's methodology but why do you want to dissuade others? Surely the more people being 'misled' the less the Ragozin product is being 'diluted?' That is what you said, isn't it? And if they really would be happier with lower sales why do they censor all of Jerry's posts? But then are they a 'bunch of communists/socialists,' to quote one of your posts, or 'Coke not talking about Pepsi' to paraphrase another?
No wonder you have trouble with the concept of horses being consistent.
Last Words? (2298 Views)
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