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Re: Mild Dissent. (1146 Views)
Posted by: TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: May 31, 2002 04:07PM
I’m going to leave most of this to Alydar. Briefly:
Your A—I predicted 3 possible things they could do with the race, the third of which was hedge. That’s what they did, and that’s why it was almost right—meaning almost in line with his too-slow Maryland numbers. Your misrepresentation of my position is intentional.
A1---They did not use the same sprint/route relationship as earlier in the card—if they had the 13th would have come up too slow. They had the right idea (completely contrary to what they posted several times in defense of Wood Memorial and other numbers, which hypocrisy was the second of the 3 possibilities I laid out), they just didn’t go far enough—they hedged. If they had applied the same logic to the relationships between the 11th and 12th they wouldn’t have blown the Schaefer figure, at least not that badly.
B---I didn’t say it would expose him as a scoundrel, just as either dogmatic in the face of strong evidence or a hypocrite. I would say I got my money’s worth, especially since Friedman conceded that there is no fixed relationship between sprints and routes, which by itself undermines most of the “logic” underpinning your comments of the last 2 weeks.
C---“Fact”: Friedman made a statement. Fact: The relationship between the 6th race (route) and the 8th and 9th (the next two dirt races, sprints) on Ragozin is almost 3 points different than that between the first and second, and the 13th to the 11th and 12th.
That would be me, responding directly to your points. You could try that some time. Whoops, I forgot—they taught you at Harvard Law that it is better to be “right” than right.
TGJB
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